Alan Wynne
Global Investment Strategist
President Donald Trump signed more Day 1 executive orders than the last ten presidents combined.
Since signing, U.S. equity markets are higher and the S&P 500 ( +1.6%) reached its first all-time high of 2025 as we prepare to close out Trump’s first week in office.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 ( +1.7%) and small caps (Solactive 2000 +1.5%) also pushed higher. And it wasn’t just the U.S. that saw green; Japanese equities (TOPIX +2.7%) are heading toward their best weekly performance of 2025 and European equities (Stoxx 50 +1.3%) are moving higher.
In fixed income, Treasury yields are finishing where they started the week. In commodities, the price of oil ( -3.3%) has declined by the most since November. Commodities traders are preparing for increased supply amid the administration’s stance on increased drilling (more on that below) and a call for more supply from OPEC members.
We expected increased uncertainty under the new administration. While uncertainty is still elevated, here are three things we learned in the early stages of the new presidency.
1. A slew of executive orders. We believe some of these orders will have no economic impact but we focus below on those that may affect markets across three themes.
2. Tariff talk (and the lack thereof). President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the U.S.’s top four trading partners – Mexico, Canada, China and the European Union – starting as soon as next week. However, no immediate tariffs were enacted. Trump’s executive order on trade includes studies to potentially overhaul U.S. trade policy, setting the stage for future tariff actions. As President Trump has previously indicated, tariffs can be used as a tool to raise revenues ahead of negotiations to extend Trump’s first-term tax cuts, which are expected to increase budget deficits.
Overall, the executive order lays the groundwork for potential future tariffs, with Trump using the threat of tariffs as leverage in international negotiations. While some of the tariff threats may be used as leverage, we believe there will be significant increases in tariffs toward China. The validity of tariffs threatened toward other trading partners is less clear in terms of timing and whether they are being used as bargaining chips (as was the case during Trump’s first term). For now, the lack of immediate action has provided some reassurance to critics and markets. We can look to currency markets as a gauge and so far, currencies across Mexico, Canada and Europe haven’t seen notable weakness since the inauguration.
3. “Starlit” pathway to deregulation. SoftBank, OpenAI and Oracle Corporation have announced a joint venture called “Stargate” to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure. The initial investment is said to total $100 billion, with an aim to increase to at least $500 billion over the next four years. The venture seeks to build new infrastructure for OpenAI, including data centers and campuses.
The initiative was unveiled by President Donald Trump but has been in the works since before his inauguration. Regardless, the backing of the venture, which aims to boost U.S. leadership in AI, is a concrete signal of the deregulation that the market has anticipated from this administration. President Trump has repealed the AI-focused executive order issued by former president Joe Biden. The order required advanced AI developers to submit safety results to the federal government.
However, there is skepticism about the scale of the initiative and SoftBank’s ability to fund it (SotfBank had $25 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet in Q3 2024). Elon Musk also chimed in on social media, claiming that the companies behind the project don’t have enough money to follow through on their pledges.
We believe that the infrastructure spending needed to support the scaling AI business is a theme with room to run. For data centers alone, electricity demand is projected to nearly triple by 2030. The grid may need to add up to 18 gigawatts – about equivalent to three times the size New York City’s daily power demand. This means the infrastructure that supports these AI tools will need an upgrade. The Department of Energy estimates that 47,300 gigawatt-miles of additional transmission infrastructure will be needed by 2035. That represents a 57% increase to the current grid. For reference, the U.S. increased transmission line mileage by just 13% from 2004 to 2016.
While there are still many details of the administration’s policies to work out, your J.P. Morgan advisor is here to help you position portfolios for any outcome.
All market and economic data as of 01/24/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
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DISCLOSURES
The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.
Index definitions:
The Solactive United States 2000 Index intends to track the performance of the largest 1001 to 3000 companies from the United States stock market. Constituents are selected based on company market capitalization and weighted by free float market capitalization.
The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market.
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).
The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit, call, liquidity and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.
Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.
The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.
The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.
The Russell 2000 Index measures small company stock market performance. The index does not include fees or expenses.
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