The e-Trading Edit:
the inside
How will your predictions compare?
2025 survey results
now in its
ninth year
institutional traders responded
global locations
represented
Industry insights
2025 e-Trading insights: What’s top of mind for institutional traders?
Patrick Whelan: Hi, you're listening to Market Matters on J.P. Morgan's Making Sense. I'm Patrick Whelan, head of FICC Digital Markets at J.P. Morgan. In today's episode, we explore the latest insights from our annual E-Trading edit survey. And joining me is Gergana Thiel, the global co-head of Macro Sales. We're excited to delve into the key themes and predictions that are gonna shape the future of trading in 2025. Thanks for joining me, Gergana.
Gergana Thiel: Thank you Patrick, and thank all of you who have dialed in for this episode on Market Matters. I'm looking forward to discussing the results of our survey and what they mean for our clients and for the industry.
Patrick Whelan: So yeah, let's start with the survey background for a minute. This is the ninth year we've conducted the E-Trading edit, and it's grown to one of the largest institutional surveys across our industry. This year we had a record number of participants with over 4,200 clients participating from 60 locations around the globe, providing a comprehensive view across all asset classes. Gergana, why do you think the survey is so important to market participants and especially to our clients?
Gergana Thiel: Patrick, just as you mentioned, this is a very broad survey. This is a survey that reaches many clients, a very, uh, diversified set of participants, and it really gives us a holistic view on market sentiment and what people feel is central to their trading agenda, to their trading views. On our side, a survey like that helps us understand the client's needs better, the client's expectations, and also it helps us tailor our strategy and our ability to deliver the J.P. Morgan platform to clients better.
Patrick Whelan: Now, we both work in global markets and one of the key questions we ask every year is what will have the biggest impact on those markets in 2025? This year's survey produced some interesting insights as it always does, with inflation and tariffs coming out on top. Did you find this surprising?
Gergana Thiel: Well, the survey was taken between the 9th of January and the 23rd of January, so it does not surprise me that 51% of the participants thought that tariffs and inflation will be two of the central risks or two of the, the central spots for the market to focus on. Having said that, there are other nuances and there are other topics that people discussed. I would say rising cost is an issue and people care about that. Need of, uh, seeing more detail around the trade policies is something that people expect to see and, and are focused on. But on the flip side of inflation and tariffs, and on a more positive note, we see emerging optimism. We see people pricing out the risk of recession from 18% to 7%.
Patrick Whelan: That's a big change year over year from where we were last year versus this year. Another interesting insight that we had from the survey this year was one that we ask the institutional traders that participate is what they think the biggest daily trading challenge will be for them in 2025. Volatile markets remains the top predicted challenge once more for traders in this category, but it did increase significantly from 28% in '24 to 41% of respondents in 2025, seeing it as a challenge that will have a big impact this year. You've mentioned the importance of being a reliable partner in any market condition to our clients. Can you expand on that a little bit more and what that means in terms of the, the survey results that we saw this year?
Gergana Thiel: Volatile markets, as you mentioned, are a real concern because volatility, disruption leads to big moves, a lot of uncertainty, and those are the times when clients need us the most. Those are the times where we are central to our clients providing stability, continuity, the trust that exists, uh, helps us really bring innovative solutions, and through the J.P. Morgan platform, deliver liquidity and advice and guidance to our clients during that period of time. So I think that you are spot-on when you say that reliability is so key, especially during that time. One thing I would say is that technology is what helps us do all of these things. And since you, in your position, you're so central to all the conversations about technology that happen with clients, do you echo these comments?
Patrick Whelan: Absolutely. I think one of the great things about the survey is being able to bounce the same ideas off a large group of people and see what they see as being the most influential factors from their perspective, especially in terms of technology trends, and obviously in 2025, AI and machine learning came out on top once again, but I do feel like within J.P. Morgan, we've invested a lot in that space already. We still continue to invest there and we, we're looking to leverage the data we have to drive more of efficiencies and automate more of our processes. I think we're still learning about how we can create commercial value through the use of LLM and large-scale AI efforts across the the firm. But I do feel like in '25 and '26 and into '27, we're gonna see more of that coming, coming into the day-to-day of both our sales traders and clients. Beyond AI and machine learning, it was also interesting to see once again, and it was a hundred percent of respondents saying that they expect e-trading to grow in 2025. It's a large number of participants to all say the same thing. It was the only part of the survey that we had a hundred percent agreement on, and so it was also interesting that like they were pointing to EM rates and credit as being two of the areas that will continue to grow in terms of electronification in in 2025. Those are two areas that we're investing in as well. From a J.P. Morgan perspective, we're obviously trying to be there for our clients as well as they look to leverage some of the solutions that are becoming available, and obviously continuing to expand our e-trading offering across the world is a key priority for us. We also look to develop some new innovative solutions as we continue to expand our e-trading offering. That allows us to provide more robust direct API solutions across asset classes where we can connect directly with our clients, as well as enhancing our offering on our single dealer platform, Execute. You know, with clients also highlighting the fact that reducing brokerage and execution costs is an important focus area for 2025, these types of solutions allow us to provide more competitive pricing, better analytics and ultimately reduce information leakage as clients choose to leverage some of the solutions that we're able to put out there and ultimately address some of their key concerns that they've, they've highlighted once more in in this survey, but we still have a long way to go. Like everything, it's always a little bit like that in technology, but it's good to see the trends and predictions are continuing to, to stay focused on delivering some of those.
Gergana Thiel: Absolutely. But staying on that topic, real-time data and analytics comes up very often in our conversations on the sales side with the clients. It's something that has become now so central to the investment process and the way clients engage with the market, with the opportunities that the market presents. Do you think that we are doing enough? Are you looking forward in, in seeing some other products and opportunities ahead of us?
Patrick Whelan: Look, we can always be doing more, but it's one of those things that we continue to invest in, and I think there's definitely a continued need for more of it. Working with large data sets and providing real time data both to our sales and traders as well as to our clients, is a continued focus. And obviously in certain asset classes, it's much more highly developed and we have a lot more data available to us. I think in some of the, in some of the ones that are still on the kind of electronic-ification journey, it's a bit harder, and so we have to come up with more innovative analytics that clients are looking for. We have to leverage the data sets that we have and obviously make them available in a way that people can consume easily, ideally visually as well as via API so that they have access to what they need when they need it. But like all things, it's, it's still a work in progress and so we still have a little bit more to go, I suppose from your side, you obviously talked to clients a lot as well on, on a number of topics. Is there anything else that you saw in the, in the survey?
Gergana Thiel: Look, I think that we touched on all the key takeaways, and in addition to that, it gave us a really comprehensive map of some of the offerings, some of the key and most interesting developments that are happening in that space. So I thought that we should finish this conversation with three words that we each have and trying to predict 2025, from what we've seen in the survey and a little bit from what we expect ourselves. So maybe you start. Three words?
Patrick Whelan: Excellent question. My three words would be data, connectivity, and growth. Data -- we've already touched upon, it's a critical role in decision-making. Connectivity -- as we enhance our digital platforms, and growth -- as we continue to see opportunities emerging in various sectors for continued e-trading expansion.
Gergana Thiel: Well, you got all the good words.
Patrick Whelan: (laughs)
Gergana Thiel: My three would be tariffs, technology and the U.S. dollar. At the start of this conversation, we touched upon it, but tariffs are going to be central for the new opportunity set and, and going ahead this year. Technology is ever so central and we really elaborated on that, and the U.S. dollar, I think the U.S. dollar is something that that is, uh, showing us the pulse of the market at the moment and, and the sentiment.
Patrick Whelan: Excellent choices as well. So certainly looking forward to seeing some of those play out in 2025. Thanks for joining me today.
Gergana Thiel: Thank you. Thank you, Patrick. Thank you all for all of the listeners who have dialed in to all of our clients, and stay informed. Stay strong. Goodbye.
Voiceover: Thanks for listening to Market Matters. If you've enjoyed this conversation, we hope you'll review, rate and subscribe to J.P. Morgan's Making Sense to stay on top of the latest industry news and trends, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co, and its affiliates together J.P. Morgan, and do not constitute research or recommendation advice or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. They're not issued by J.P. Morgan's research department, but are a solicitation under CFTC Rule 1.71. Reference products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principle in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. The FICC market structure publications, or to one, newsletters mentioned in this podcast are available for J.P. Morgan clients. Please contact your J.P. Morgan sales representative should you wish to receive these. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures. Copyright 2025 JP Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Trader TV: Assessing industry predictions
Scott Wacker, head of E-commerce Sales at J.P. Morgan, spoke with Trader TV about the market’s expectations in 2024 ahead of the 9th annual e-Trading Edit survey.
Trader TV: Assessing industry predictions
Scott Wacker, head of E-commerce Sales at J.P. Morgan, spoke with Trader TV about the market’s expectations in 2024 ahead of the 9th annual e-Trading Edit survey.
Dan Barnes: Welcome to Trader TV, your insights into institutional trading. I'm Dan Barnes. With me in the studio today is Scott Wacker, head of e-commerce sales at J.P. Morgan, to review 2024 activity against expectations found in the bank's E trading survey. Scott, welcome back to the show.
Scott Wacker: Thank you, Dan.
Dan Barnes: How did activity play out and did it meet expectations?
Scott Wacker: I think broadly it did. If we take a step back to actually what the survey highlighted, I think, first of all, 100% of the survey participants expected there would be a continued move towards electronic trading, that electronic volumes would grow. Second of all, I think there was some concern around liquidity. And finally, I think there was a view that we would see heightened volatility as well. We did indeed see electronic volumes continue to grow. So if we just look at some of the asset classes, G10 FX was up 15%, and rates was up as well. But interestingly, separated between securities and derivatives. Interest rate derivatives up 15%, securities up 8%. Obviously, with inflation driving interest rates around, we saw very strong increase in interest rate derivative activity. What was surprising was commodities. So commodities was up 32%. That's quite striking. And I guess it really plays to some of the geopolitical issues. You know, we have conflicts in the Middle East, in Ukraine, etc. and I think that that has actually affected a lot of commodity trading. One area which, again, the survey anticipated further growth on the electronic side was in credit trading, but actually in G10, credit volume shrunk by 6%, which is kind of unusual given the markets have been so active. I think a lot of it has to do with really market structure. I don't really think that we have quite progressed electronic credit trading to the point where we can sort of see the direct correlations in terms of market movement and electronic trading. So credit trading as an asset class, it was one of the outperformers, but I think a lot of that was really driven by voice trading because the electronic capabilities, at least across the main market makers, are not there. So if you think of the main electronic credit market makers, the development, the APIs, etc., are not quite as advanced as they are in the other asset classes.
Dan Barnes: Looking at the macro issues, how do they play out and what sort of impact do they have relative to expectations?
Scott Wacker: Inflation definitely has been a big theme. Broadly, we've seen inflation come down, but probably not as quickly as the market expected. Volatility certainly in the rates environment due to inflation expectations versus follow-through from the central banks was one thing we saw through the market. There was some concern about the US elections, which is definitely something that, you know, drove the market on November 5th and 6th. But actually, if you think about it, we saw a lot of positioning ahead of and a lot of positioning afterwards. So it really wasn't a one-day thing. However, we just look at the one day, and what I thought was particularly striking about this election versus the one in 2016, was that even though the market wasn't certain in terms of the outcome of the election, there was still quite a bit of activity. But liquidity never seemed to be a problem. Bid-ask spreads never really widened out. I think access to liquidity was fine. None of the systems broke or fell, and I think that's really a testament to the evolution of electronic trading. That said, you know, at J.P. Morgan, we did have our second largest volume day ever in sort of the hours after the election until we sort of knew what the outcome was going to be. We saw a huge shift towards algorithmic trading and algorithmic orders, which is really just a natural development of the ability to stream liquidity. Obviously regulatory change has been a big theme when it comes to sort of capital adequacy, Basel three, etc.. But I think with the election, that whole narrative has changed. You know, we don't know what's going to happen when the Trump administration comes in, although we've been given a lot of hints, we've been told taxes are going to come down. We told there's going to be massive deregulation. I think a lot of the rules, the SEC, the CFTC are looking at, a lot of those could change. So pretty exciting in that, you know, if there is any direction this might take, it'll probably move towards the deregulation side, which I think just unfettered the market even further.
Dan Barnes: Going back to the survey, people looked at the way that different technology would impact trading, particularly around AI and APIs. What do you think the perceived impact towards a very specific technologies.
Scott Wacker: With regard to artificial intelligence in the macro environment or the fixed income markets? I think it really has played a lot into market volatility and market dynamics just yet. But you can't argue the excitement around what A.I. may bring, both on the energy side but also on the equity side. When you look at, you know, chip manufacturers, etc. You know, certainly the equity market has been massively influenced by artificial intelligence or the expectation of artificial intelligence. I think that will continue incorporating AI into electronic trading, you know, decision making, etc., has not really taken hold yet. There's a little bit of machine learning too, in. It's models. But as far as replacing traders at this point, I think it's more augmentation than it is replacement. Yeah. Now, APIs, on the other hand, continue to grow. I think this is one way traffic, particularly when you think about efficiency of execution, the ability to pull in data in a way that is, let's say, a much lower touch and much higher frequency, whether it's into analytical tools, optimization tools, best execution tools. And I think the different protocols that APIs allow, whether it's execution orders, data, etc., is just going to continue to grow. The problem is it just takes time. None of this integration is free. None of this integration can be done overnight. In many cases, the API specs have not been written, but we have seen a huge surge in interest from our clients as they look to create more, let's say, independence from incumbent technologies.
Dan Barnes: Looking ahead then, what are the expectations? What things might change in 2025? Do you think.
Scott Wacker: The U.S.-China relationship is going to be key? Really, those are the two biggest economies and it feels like those are the two entities are going to drive a lot of discussions. It really remains to be seen sort of how the rest of the world plays. Certainly, we have heard concern from countries around the world that with the new US administration coming in, there's a lot of talk about tariffs. I think there's some concern, though, So we'll see how that plays out. And I think there's going to be quite a bit of focus on that in terms of market structure and trading. You know, one of the things we're going to ask traders a little bit about is to what extent a single dealer versus an API versus a multi dealer makes sense or doesn't make sense. And this is not just for execution. This is for data analytics. Because ultimately, if you think about, you know, an electronic market that moves from a single channel to multiple channels, data fragments and when data fragments, how do you pull it together and how do you actually understand what's going on in the market? So I think that's something we're going to look at. I think really regulation is something else we want to look at and to see where people are thinking about their.
Dan Barnes: I'd like to thank Scott for his insights today and of course, you for watching. Let's catch our other shows, including Tiny TV this week at 6:45 a.m. You can see him every Monday morning. There's https://tradertv.net/.
Global markets
Which potential developments will have the greatest impact on the markets in 2025?
51% of traders predicted inflation and tariffs will have the largest impact on markets in 2025 vs. 27% in 2024.
51% of traders predicted inflation and tariffs will have the largest impact on markets in 2025 vs. 27% in 2024.
What will be your greatest daily trading challenge in 2025?
Volatile markets remain the top daily challenge three years in a row.
Volatile markets remain the top daily challenge three years in a row.
Technology
In the next three years, which technologies will be most influential for trading?
Artificial intelligence/machine learning remains the most influential technology for trading, same as the previous two years.
Artificial intelligence/machine learning remains the most influential technology for trading, similar to the previous two years.
Market structure
What are your top three market structure concerns?
From 2023 to 2025, access to liquidity consistently ranks as the top concern, while regulatory changes and market data access and costs are increasingly significant issues.
Platform trends
What percentage of your trading will be through e-Trading channels? This includes API, multi-dealer platforms and single-dealer platforms.
From 2025 to 2026, trading in all listed products is predicted to increase. EM rates leads at a 10%, from 59% to 69%. This is followed by a 9% increase in commodities, credit spread, crypto digital coins, futures and options and G10 rates. There is an 8% rise in cash equities, equity derivatives and FX.
What type of platform do you primarily use for your institutional trading activities?
Traders primarily use a multi-dealer platform (38%), or both multi-dealer and single-dealer platforms (34%). 28% opt for a single-dealer platform.
What is the most important criteria when selecting a single-dealer platform?
At 29%, reduced execution/brokerage cost is the most important criteria when traders select a single-dealer platform. This is followed by access to liquidity/inventory (27%) and multi-asset product offering (15%).
At 29%, reduced execution/brokerage cost is the most important criteria when traders select a single-dealer platform. This is followed by access to liquidity/inventory (27%) and multi-asset product offering (15%).
Apart from pricing and execution, which features/capabilities are most valuable to you on a trading platform?
Pricing and execution aside, traders find ease of access and experience to be the most valuable feature on a trading platform (28%). This is followed by post-execution position monitoring and actions (22%) and customer support (18%).
Which data and analytics tools are most valuable to you?
Real-time data and analytics is the most valuable tool for data and analytics.
Apart from pricing and execution, which features/capabilities are most valuable to you on a trading platform?
Which data and analytics tools are most valuable to you?
Pricing and execution aside, traders find ease of access and experience to be the most valuable feature on a trading platform (28%). This is followed by post-execution position monitoring and actions (22%) and customer support (18%).
Real-time data and analytics is the most valuable tool for data and analytics.
Which of these products do you think will have the most advances in electronic trading in the next 12 months?
In the next 12 months, corporate bonds are expected to see the most advances in electronic trading, consistently ranking highest in both 2024 and 2025.
Which option best describes your institutional work with crypto/digital coins?
The majority of traders have no plans to trade crypto/digital coins, though this percentage decreases slightly from 78% in 2024 to 71% in 2025.
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Survey was run January 9 – January 23, 2025.
Not all data will add up to 100% in graphs as we have rounded to the nearest % significance allowing for respondents to be able to select just one option.
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