The market outlook at mid-year: A long road to normal

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Sam Azzarello: Welcome to Research Recap on J.P. Morgan's Making Sense podcast. I'm Sam Azzarello and I lead content strategy for global research here at J.P. Morgan. Today, I'm joined by a few of my colleagues to discuss our 2024 mid-year outlook. Throughout this episode we'll be discussing the key happenings that have shaped 2024 so far and what lies ahead for the economy and markets in the second half of the year. So with that, let's dive right in. To kick things off, we'll hear from Bruce Kasman, our Chief Global Economist. Bruce, thanks so much for being here today.

Bruce Kasman: Thanks for having me.

Sam Azzarello: So Bruce, what’s the outlook for the global economy at mid-year?

Bruce Kasman: The key point to our outlook is that the global economy is moving on to a more sustainable path as it becomes less dependent on the United States, and the base of growth is broadening. At the same time, we think that we're seeing the progress in terms of bringing inflation back down to Central Bank targets pretty much stall here. Not at an unusually high level, but still at levels that are comfortable for Central Banks. And as a result of these two points, we think that the environment is still consistent with a limited window for Central Bank easing, and effectively that we live in a high for long environment for a considerable period of time.

Sam Azzarello: That's very interesting. Thank you for that. As you look to the second half of the year and beyond, what are some factors you and your team will be keeping an eye on?

Bruce Kasman: Well, as we look to the second half of the year and beyond, I think what's interesting is that performance has been more or less in line with what we expected in the first half, but there's some underlying performance gaps that really do still challenge our view. On the growth side, I think one issue is that while consumer purchasing power has been lifted by falling inflation and by still pretty strong wage gains, consumer confidence has remained depressed. The balance of those forces has left a pretty sluggish consumer. I think a second performance gap reflects the fact that profits have been sluggish, even though margins for corporations have remained high. And that's left us with a corporate sector that's remained in expansion mode, but not decisively so. On the inflation side, labor markets have been tight, but have shown somewhat better balance, particularly in the US, where the unemployment rate has come up. And as well, we've seen some reduction in vacancies in other measures of labor market tightness. Our forecast continues to be that we stay sticky on inflation, we stay resilient on growth. We're comfortable with that, but there clearly are some things we need to see. And I think from my point of view, the biggest determinant of what is gonna happen in the next six or nine months is the behavior of businesses. And if we're right, businesses stay in that expansion mode. And I would argue that if that's the case, then the right way to look at the sluggish consumer is give them jobs and they will spend.

Sam Azzarello: And finally, Bruce, what are some of the biggest uncertainties as we go forward?

Bruce Kasman: Well, I think there's at least two uncertainties we should focus on. One is the continued elevated interest rate environment that contrasts with what are financial conditions that have actually been easing broadly this year. This is somewhat uncharted territory in terms of how it influences the outlook going forward. And I think it is something which adds uncertainty, as companies do face higher borrowing costs, as balance sheets are adjusting to higher interest rates, but we're seeing equity markets reach record highs. We're seeing the spread markets and credit more generally behave well, and capital is flowing to key emerging markets at this point in time. The second thing, of course, is the political environment, which has a number of uncertainties around elections. Perhaps the biggest one is the US election in November. We think the most important risk around the election would be the resumption of a trade war, which in 2018/'19 actually had a significant negative impact on business confident, had an effect on depressing business spending, capital spending particularly. And if we entered in another one, we're almost certainly gonna see retaliatory action elsewhere. And the potential negatives for that on growth, we think overwhelms some other things that might be happening in the US, perhaps on fiscal policy and the regulatory front.

Sam Azzarello: Yes. I expect that the US election will be a reocurring theme as we continue to hear from our colleagues throughout this podcast. Bruce, thank you so much for sharing your insights.

Bruce Kasman: Thank you.

Sam Azzarello: Next up, we have Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equity Strategy. So Mislav, what are some of the key factors for the equities market at mid-year?

Mislav Matejka: The key for the outlook is really this trade off between growth and policy. In the first half of the year, there was a positive trade-off. The expectation was that central banks will be easing for the right reasons for the falling inflation. And at the same time, the view was that the improvement in financing conditions on the back of this easing will help spur the growth into the second half. And that's why the markets were doing fine in the first half. Now, there was no easing by the key central bank, the fed, so far. For the second half, we do think there could be some easing, but the issue is that it's not going to be preemptive and proactive for the inflation falling reasons. It might be reactive, and really for the reason of growth, disappointing. And that brings into question the earnings delivery because the expectations are quite high for second half. So this trade off of higher for longer central banks and easing only for the growth disappointment reason. But on the other side, how are we going to get the earnings delivery, which is expected to be very high? And then the starting point to all this is not anymore that people are under invested or people are scared or hedged or away from the market. The starting point is low volatility, low spreads, high positioning, and that kind of models the trade-off for the equity market.

Sam Azzarello: Thank you for that. What are some things you'll be keeping an eye on as we head into the second half of the year?

Mislav Matejka: For the second half, we are going to pay attention to politics. The US elections will be quite critical on many fronts. Trade, geopolitics tariffs. We also need to see how the latest French elections will play out as we go through the year. And then the question is really over the leadership in the equity market. So far the equity market was very one sided, very narrow. The question is, will there be broadening? And we have started the year long growth style long, large gaps. There are some opportunities in second half, to play some of the rotations, but I think that would be important for investors, the leadership in the equity market.

Sam Azzarello: And finally, what are some of the themes you will be watching going forward?

Mislav Matejka: In terms of the themes, what we are gonna be looking at is profit margins. Companies basically benefited from COVID distortions. Their profitability improved, their top line was very strong, mix was very strong. Is that sustainable? Is that a steady state? Can companies continue to deliver also the credit market. So far, credit market was very, very benign, and that fed into the equity valuations. The question is, is that going to continue as well.

Sam Azzarello: Mislav, thank you for your time and insights.

Sam Azzarello: Now let's hear from Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy. So Meera, what are the key points to focus on in the FX market in the second half of 2024?

Meera Chandan: Two key points to focus on. The first one is the broad dollar. The expectation is that the dollar should stay strong, if not get stronger from current levels. The straightforward explanation for that is that the rest of the world is really not offering much in terms of yield or growth to incentivize investors away from the dollar. The dollar currently yields more than half of the currencies globally. And even by virtue of doing nothing at all, it's gaining ground because the Feds are not cutting as we speak, but other centrals banks are. So that is a growing yield advantage that the dollar has. And the second is that the growth advantage is also quite intact because we're coming off of very strong growth levels. Data is moderating in, in the US, but it is coming off very strong levels. So we shouldn't really expect to see massive amount of dollar weakness in this environment particularly when it looks like the growth pickup outside the US is also softening once again. The latest set of PMIs from Europe, for example, disappointed, which I think the next number will be quite key. China data has also been pretty fragile. So overall, not a lot of competing growth and yield alternatives for the dollar, which is why we're bullish. As far as the second thing is concerned, it's going to be about yield compression. 80% of central banks will be cutting rates at some point this year. And what that means is that investors who were engaging in yield seeking behavior last couple of years, carry was the main theme as a result of that, that is now going to slowly fade away. And certainly, as the year goes on and as the Fed is able to participate in this easing cycle, I think that, that particular effect should snowball.

Sam Azzarello: Thanks for that. What are some factors that you and the FX team are considering as we head into the second half of the year?

Meera Chandan: Lots of challenges for FX in the second half. I'd say the first one is that FX usually tends to be about divergences. This year, 80% of central banks will be cutting rates, so it's really more about policy convergence, it's not that much differentiation. So what this means is that you really have to put a lot of effort into identifying what other drivers of currencies could emerge. And we think the growth outlook, the relative terms of trade, is gonna be more relevant drivers of currencies. Carry is gonna recede as theme. I think the second challenge is going to be around the US elections. That's certainly the biggest event in the second half and I think there's a lot of uncertainty in terms of what that might bring. But it's fair to say that in certain cases the trade policy as well as the policy on Ukraine and Russia is probably gonna be dollar positive. So that's yet another thing that adds to the dollar advantage going into this key event.

Sam Azzarello: Meera, thanks for sharing your views with us.

Sam Azzarello: And now for a look at rates, let's turn to Jay Barry, out Co-Head of US Rate Strategy. Jay, can you walk us through your expectations for US rates and the fixed income markets as we head into the second half of the year?

Jay Barry: So, we think it's very important to note that the Fed's been on hold now for, for just about a year, and that's one of the longer on hold periods we've seen over the last 30 years. But we see a pathway for the Fed to start lowering rates in the second half, in the fall, because consumption is slowing, because labor markets are loosening, and we do see a pathway for the disinflationary process to return. And that has typically been supportive of yields moving lower and yield curves steepening. So I think it's important to note that we think that the peak for yields has been put in earlier this year and that there is a pathway to lower yields. We think it's more than likely that yields will be range bound for the next few months before resuming their descent much later this year. And this really presents a challenge for investors, because ordinarily, even looking at shallow raising cycles like we've seen in 1995 and 2019, yields have declined pretty aggressively heading into the first cut. Whereas this time around we're already pricing in 150 basis points of cuts over the next six months, so we think it will be important for investors to choose location when they're trying to add duration, given how much is already priced in for the Fed for the balance of this year as well as for 2025.

Sam Azzarello: Jay, this is a question we're asking all of our analysts on the podcast, what's changed from the first half of the year versus the second half of the year?

Jay Barry: So, the first half of the year was dominated by upside prints to inflation, upside prints to growth, and consistent revisions higher, which brought the markets to revise their Fed forecast from a Fed that was likely to start easing in the spring and ease aggressively to now one that is likely to ease later this year. But we think that we're probably past the peak of growth and inflation revisions because we've seen evidence that consumption is slowing, and we think the disinflationary process, which had become halting in the first half, will start to resume in the second half of this year. So the market was very hawkish with respect to its expectations for the Fed in the first half, but we expect it to be slightly more dovish for the second half.

Sam Azzarello: And final question for you, what are some key themes you'll be watching going forward?

Jay Barry: So, certainly trying to get a sense of exactly how decisively the labor market is slowing. Because we've seen that initial jobless claims have begun to move higher over the last couple of months, but so far it seems that the move higher has been for more benign reasons than for layoffs. If we get a sense that they're picking up more aggressively, that might be important because it could lead the markets to price in an earlier set of Fed cuts, a more aggressive pace and a lower terminal rate, which would probably present some downside risk to our Treasury forecast for the balance of this year. So that's one key factor that we're certainly watching. We're also watching the presidential election and the potential that it's got for the fiscal impact. And then we're watching supply and demand, because the Treasury market we think is pivoting away from support from largely price insensitive investors, like the Fed and foreign investors in US banks, towards more price sensitive investors. And against the backdrop of what is very heavy Treasury supply, we think this should lend itself towards a slow creep higher to term premium over time and, and higher yield curves, steeper yield curves. So we're watching supply and demand dynamics as well.

Sam Azzarello: Fantastic. Jay, thanks for that.

Jay Barry: Thanks so much for having me.

Sam Azzarello: And next we'll be hearing about international rates. Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rate Strategy joins us. Fabio, What are some of the key points in your outlook that you think are especially pertinent to clients?

Fabio Bassi: Clients should be aware that the second half of the year will be where central bank will start cutting rates. The title of our outlook was Not an Easy Easing Cycle, indicating the challenges of central banks. However, we have more conviction in terms of the disinflation process that is taking place. What are the central banks, ex-US, that are going to cut this year? We expect the Bank of England, the RBNZ and the Norges Bank to join the ECB and the Riksbank that already started cutting rates in the first half of the year. Is the market already pricing this cutting cycle? Not fully, and that's the reason why we see value in long duration. The market where we feel strongly in terms of the long duration is probably the euro area where the market is not pricing a terminal rate in line with our forecast. In terms of target, we expect the yields to move lower.

Sam Azzarello: Fabio, are there any dynamics you would outline that have changed from the first half of the year as we move into the second half of the year?

Fabio Bassi: The first half of the year was very sticky in terms inflation, resilient growth. We challenge the ability of central bank to deliver the cut that were priced at the beginning of the year, but we believe that that dynamic will gradually change with slower economic growth and inflation allowing central bank to remove some of these monetary policy restrictions. What does it mean? It means that we like to trade duration from the long side. We believe that there are two notable exceptions in this dynamic. The RBA will not be able to cut in our view until early next year. And the BOJ is on a different camp where we expect the BOJ to actually hike rates by 50 basis points this year and again in 2025.

Sam Azzarello: And lastly, what are some key themes you will be watching as we head into the second half?

Fabio Bassi: Well, definitely we expect a tactical trading outlook. I don't think it will be a second half of the year where people can position and sit down and relax. I think that the soft landing story, which is pretty much the baseline of our macro outlook could be challenged by data dynamic, where some resilience in growth and inflation could make the market prices situation not dissimilar to what we saw on the first half of the year, which basically means a delay in the expectation of the cutting cycle. On the other side, if you're going to have a deterioration on the macro outlook or on the labor market, that could lead potentially to a dynamic where the market price and accelerating the easing cycle with a faster cutting and that would be clearly a dynamic where we need to lower our yield target for the rest of the year. I think that geopolitical tension will remain in the horizon and that is a risk dynamic that people should be aware of. We recently came from the election in UK and the election in France that created selectively a certain amount of tension and this is something that people should  keep an eye on going forward. Clearly, we're going to a big election in the US, and that is another factor that should be in the investor radar screen.

Sam Azzarello: Fabio, thanks for sharing your outlook on international rates with us.

Sam Azzarello: And now we're gonna turn to commodities. Joining us is Natasha Kaneva, our Global Head of Commodities Research. Natasha, what are the key things to watch in the commodities space as we move into the second half of the year?

Natasha Kaneva: Thank you for having me. So point number one is with the fear of economic growth fading we believe that the recent pullback in commodities is just that, a pullback. So number one is agricultural commodities. Second on our list is oil. So the balance will be tightening very quickly into the fourth quarter. Demand remains very strong. Though we would have to be very explicit that majority of the move has already happened. It's behind us with 12% appreciation in the in the oil prices. In the third place is precious metals. It's gold and silver

Sam Azzarello: Fantastic. Thanks for that. Final question for you – What are some key themes in commodity markets that you think are relevant for clients to be aware of?

Natasha Kaneva: There are a couple things that clients should be watching very closely. Number one is weather. So July has been oppressively hot. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is anticipating a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season. This is the largest number of named storms since the agency began issuing seasonal hurricane outlooks in 1998. So excessive temperatures have supersized effects on commodity supply chains, for example, oil refining we're watching very closely what is going to happen in the Gulf Coast throughout the summer. But at the same time further amplifying the risks to the US benchmark oil and gas prices nearly half of the US petroleum plant capacity, natural gas processing capacity is sitting in the US, along the hurricane prone Gulf Coast. And, of course, droughts have very negative impact on the, on the food supply. But outside of that, we're watching very closely demand as well. As Northern Hemisphere barrels into summer we anticipate demand for some of the world's most vital commodities to climb. So revenge summer travel season continues, it's very much still in place. For example, in United States we expect 82% of all the Americans to travel this summer. Majority of them will be traveling by car clearly this is very bullish for the gasoline demand, in terms of guidance from the US airlines and the international airlines who are expecting about six to eight percent higher travel demand this year versus 2019. So by all means it should be a very strong demand season for most commodities.

Natasha Kaneva: Natasha, thank you for sharing your views with us.

Natasha Kaneva: Thanks for having me.

Sam Azzarello: And now, for a look at credit markets, Stephen Dulake, our global head of Credit, Securitized Products and Public Finance Research joins us. Steve, thanks for stopping by.

Stephen Dulake: You're welcome.

Sam Azzarello: So Steve, what are some highlights from the credit markets at mid-year?

Stephen Dulake: I think the first point is that not much has changed at all, at least in terms of the broad credit market narrative. So, you know, this idea that you have this push and pull between very tight credit spreads on the one hand, and relatively attractive all-in yields on the other. I think that's fairly well known, I think that remains in place through the second half of the year. And, and the sort of bottom line for investors is still that I think credit offers a decent, though not stellar return. I think as the second half of the year evolves we will see more decompression or dispersion in markets, not least given our own macro base case that growth slows a little bit from here. And to revisit one of the themes that we had from the very beginning of the year for our outlook for 2024 overall, one of the thoughts at the time was that the sort of securitized product space looked attractive relative to underlying fixed rates corporates. We still think that's the case. We still lean into that view, though I would say at this juncture it's probably a little bit more of a low conviction lean than was the case six months ago.

Sam Azzarello: I'd like to get your thoughts on emerging market corporates, which have been performing surprisingly well this year; do you expect that trend to continue?

Stephen Dulake: Yes we do. So the, the term that we've used to describe emerging market corporates, or our expectations performance this year is that they would do sneakily well against the backdrop of all this focus on developed markets, and Fed cuts and things like that. And emerging markets' corporates have indeed done very, very well. Two real drivers there. One, a lack of supply a market that has been structurally starved of supply for a number of reasons, but notably in Asia Chinese corporates have financed themselves onshore rather than offshore. Ditto Indian corporates. So that's, that's created a big supply squeeze, if you want to call it that in Asia and the asset class has benefited from that overall. Secondly we obviously know from the tragic events in Russia Ukraine that companies struggle, and we saw a lot targeted defaults, some of that is normalizing. Also, the stress that you've had in the Chinese property sector has begun to normalize. So from default rates being well into the double digits, 18 or 24 months ago, we now are expecting defaults to actually be around five percent in emerging market corporates. So, structural starvation of supply and default risk means EM corporates will continue to do, quote unquote, sneakily well.

Sam Azzarello: Fantastic. And finally, what's changed from the first half of the year versus the second half of the year, and what are some key factors you and your team are considering?

Stephen Dulake: I think there are probably three things that I would highlight that are going to be a little bit different about the second half relative to the first half. Firstly, I think that we're beyond the point where we're going to be debating quite aggressively how many Fed eases we're going to see this year. I think the market has broadly settled on the idea that we'll see something between one and two Fed eases this year. So depending on how the high frequency data roll, I think market pricing will oscillate somewhere between pricing no Fed cuts, and a maximum of two. And I think if I look back on our first half experience, you might argue that we probably spent too much time at any one point discussing how many or how much Fed easing we would see because credit spreads are tighter today in a world where we're pricing one or two eases than we were at the beginning of the year when we were pricing six or seven eases. If we're talking about more stability in policy rate expectations, the substitute for that could be a little bit more vol related to politics. We've seen some of this recently in France, we know that the US presidential election campaign has started. The real important point there is if the debate starts to shine a light on big budget deficits, and government debt levels, that can result in the correlation between rates and credit markets becoming temporarily positive, and you have a big move up in rates, you have a big move up in credit spreads. So I think that's something that could be a little bit different and is worth keeping an eye on. The potential offset to that is we do think that capital markets activity. We've seen a very brisk pace of debt capital market activity in the first half of the year. We think that can slow targeted bit, certainly in US high grade, where we think that net issuance through the second half of the year can actually be net-zero. So that creates a little bit of a positive technical, that can be an offset to some of this political vol, or political related vol should it surface.

Sam Azzarello: Excellent. Steve, thank you so much for your time today.

Stephen Dulake: Thanks for having me.

Sam Azzarello: Now, Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research will share his insights. Luis, what are some of the key points in your outlook this year that clients should be aware of?

Luis Oganes: So, in the projections that we have for growth for the first half of the year, actually emerging markets did exceed those expectations which is good news. However, we're seeing signs of de-acceleration in EM, so the second half of the year is probably gonna be a bit of a slower pace of growth. However, for the full year we still expect 4.2%, 2024, which would be basically flat to 2023.

Sam Azzarello: And, what's changed from the first half of the year versus the second half of the year, and what are some key factors you and your team are considering?

Luis Oganes: So emerging markets has been experiencing the de-acceleration of inflation during most of 2023 and already 2024. But in recent months, dis-inflation of course it seems to have stalled somewhat. Not too dissimilar to what we saw in the US or other developed market economies. However, there seems to be signs that the de-acceleration of inflation has resumed in the US. Now markets are expecting the Fed to start cutting potentially as early as September, which is actually the new best cast scenario for our US economists. It should allow EM central banks that have already started cutting, to continue doing so. Those that have not cut yet to start doing so. So it should be a more benign environment for emerging market central bank easing.

Sam Azzarello: And finally Luis, can you highlight two or three EM Markets you’re keeping a particularly close eye on, and why?

Luis Oganes: There are several EM countries that have enough going for them that regardless of what happens globally there's probably gonna be interesting opportunities and one of them is India. India, starting in June is being included in the GBI-EM local currency bond index. So that promises more influx into the country. Yields are [inaudible 00:03:40] relatively attractive. India is potentially gonna be attracting some of these flows that are going to be diversifying away from China. And certainly the changes in the global political waves will also favor India. So this is one country that we're paying a lot of attention to. We do have a couple of other countries that are in similar situation. One is Turkey. This is a country where there's a shift to monetary and fiscal policy orthodoxy that is starting to yield results. Inflation is coming down and this, hopefully is going to be generating in the months and quarters ahead more of a virtual circle in which lower policy rates, eventually later in this year and into next year, is going to be supporting growth. And then in the US Americas time zone, Mexico is the one country that does garner attention. There's a new government in place and there is open questions as to how President elect Claudia Sheinbaum is going to be. But certainly Mexico stands to gain the most from the intended continued decoupling of the US economy from China. Eh, with this, uh, re-shoring, ensuring, fren-shoring of, uh, eh, eh, investment flows. So I would say that I would point to these three countries are the countries to watch in emerging markets in the second half of the year and into 2025.

Sam Azzarello: As we wrap up today's podcast, let's now turn to Tom Salopek, our Head of Cross-Asset Strategy. Tom, how are things looking across asset classes?

Tom Salopek: Well, on my side I cover the three to five-year capital market assumptions for cross asset. And what I'd say is the cross asset trade-offs has worsened with the stock year-to-date rally. In general, expected returns are worse, I know if we put it into a multi-asset portfolio, we're looking at something that resembles a late-cycle portfolio. At the same time, if we look at the dollar, the dollar maybe looks overvalued on a reevaluation basis. But in the near-term what you have is that US exceptionalism, interest rate differentials, and US election risk which may be supported for the dollar. But I think whether we're talking about stocks and the recent stock rally, or we're looking at the dollar, one of the things we think about as we try to build a bridge from tactical to strategic is that it won't necessarily be a straight line. Given that in the case of the dollar, the deposited momentum can continue before our bearish view is realized and similarly for the US dollar as well.

Sam Azzarello: What are some things you'll be keeping an eye on as we head into the second half of the year?

Tom Salopek: For awhile now, we've been ping-ponging back and forth between soft landing, and a high-for-long. And what the second half of the year will do for us is clarify why we will be cutting interest rates. And I think that's a very important thing because as we look at the historical examples, what you see is that when you're cutting for growth risks, stocks go down, when you're cutting for soft landing as you did in the mid-1990s, stocks sailed right through that rate-cutting cycle. So it's very different implications. I'd say there's some meaningful differences between the 1990s in the sense that now the yield curve has been heavily inverted pointing to a growth slowdown, tough times ahead. But, at the same time that signal has not worked. And we don't think it's a matter of that signal won't work, but it's a matter of we've had supports that have extended this cycle. Cash cushion, a strong jobs market, and kind of a monetary policy transmission that's been a bit delayed with companies borrowing at fixed rates. In the case of these comparisons with the 1990s they're not perfect comparisons in the sense that whereas now the yield curve is inverted, if we go back to the 1990s and the '94 hiking cycle, the yield curve never inverted. And when we look at the picture in the ensuing period, what you see is a much stronger cyclical picture than we have right now, as we look at, a growth slowdown which will be challenging for consensus earnings estimates.

Sam Azzarello: And finally, what are some questions that investors should be asking themselves going forward?

Tom Salopek: Well, there's two things I'd highlight, and maybe one is a longer-term issue than the other there. So the first one is, how much diversification do you get from bonds? Historically, bonds should act as the cushion for stocks with the hiking cycle and rising rates, what can happen is all asset classes go down, producing a positive correlation from the hiking cycle, that's where we have been. As we go forward the issue for us, it may be less about rising rates, and more about growth risk. That points to correlations normalizing and return to a normal negative correlation between stock and bond prices. So if we have a worry about bonds, it's not so much that the correlation won't be the right way around. It's more a matter of with an incomplete hiking cycle, we don't have upside for bond expected returns as much as we thought we, we might have had.

Sam Azzarello: Fantastic. Tom, thank you so much for joining us on the podcast today.

Tom Salopek: Yeah. Thanks so much for having me.

Sam Azzarello: That wraps up our mid-year outlook episode here on Research Recap. We hope you found the insights from our analysts helpful and insightful and we want to thank you for tuning in. For more market insights visit jpmorgan.com/research.

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