Delicious vegetarian food served on a dining table.

Contributors

Sarah Stillpass

Global Investment Strategist

Giving thanks

2024 has been a year for the books. As we close in on its final weeks, we at J.P. Morgan thought it would be timely to practice some Thanksgiving gratitude and reflect upon the past 11 months in markets.

So, before we get to the celebrations – and most importantly, the food – let’s dig into the three things we (and markets) are grateful for this holiday season. 

3 things we (and markets) are grateful for this season

1. Answers to some of 2024’s biggest questions. While navigating uncertainty comes with the territory of being an investor, we acknowledge that both embracing it and forging ahead can be a tall order. Luckily, we are heading into year-end with some of 2024’s biggest questions already answered. We think that is definitely something to be grateful for: 

  • Could the Fed achieve a soft landing? Concerns about “too little, too late” swirled this summer as investors worried that labor market heart burn was a result of too aggressive tightening from the Fed. At the end of the day, it appears that despite some turbulence on the way, a soft landing may soon be reality for the Fed. The core measure of PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, has fallen by three percentage points since its peak in 2022. That is quite the feat: Outside of wartime, the U.S. has never seen such a significant decline in inflation occur without a recession. This has all taken place without cracking the labor market, so far. While there is work to be done as policy rates continue to normalize, the direction of travel appears to be positive. 
  • Were global central banks actually ready to cut policy rates? Central bankers across the globe spent much of the past two years running historic tightening campaigns against excessively high inflation. This year was all about determining if they had in fact succeeded at their job (with added bonus points for doing so without causing cracks in the broad economy). Fast forward to today, inflation across the globe has fallen meaningfully toward policy targets. That gave the majority of policymakers the go-ahead to make the long-awaited pivot to ease. Of the 37 global central banks that we track, 27 are cutting policy rates, including every major central bank besides Japan. We think this gradual and coordinated global effort is set to continue and ultimately drive growth forward from here. 
This bar graph shows headline inflation year-over-year % change, with the latest values and cycle peaks shown.
  • Who would win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? We spent much of the first 11 months of 2024 (and before) talking about the election: from what history can tell us about market volatility leading up to and following elections to analysis of proposed policies from each candidate. Now that the dust has settled and Donald Trump is officially President-Elect, we have more clarity about what may be on the road ahead. While policies are yet to be confirmed, we are expecting the incoming administration to deliver trademark Republican pro-growth policies. Markets seem to agree; we have seen a sharp rally in both U.S. large-cap and small-cap stocks. Looking ahead, post-election clarity has historically been a powerful force for markets: Since 1984, there’s only been one election year when the market was lower 12 months after the election – in 2000, during the tech bubble. 

2. Cooling inflation and a sturdy labor market. One of the biggest surprises this year has been how much inflation has continued to cool against a fairly solid economic backdrop. As mentioned above, inflation is still is not fully back to the Fed’s sweet spot, but it is darn close. As prices continue to normalize, that means your Thanksgiving grocery bill and travel plans may be cheaper than last year. Compared to just a year ago, gasoline, car rentals, turkey, potatoes, cranberries and gravy prices are down meaningfully while airfares and pies are still more expensive. As the progress continues, we are especially thankful for a sturdy labor market. Over the last year real wages have grown by 2%, which is strong and the fastest pace achieved since 2015. That has given consumers a bit of relief when it comes to keeping up with price pains. 

This bar graph shows U.S. Consumer Price Index components.

3. Over 50 all-time highs for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has had a stellar year so far, up over 25% despite election jitters, inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and elevated rates. After gaining 24% in 2023, the index is on pace for the first back-to-back years of 20%+ gains since the late 1990s. The good news is that we think the momentum can continue for a couple of key reasons: 

  1. Earnings should continue to be supportive. This year companies were able to produce profits in the face of historically restrictive rates. Looking ahead to next year, every sector in the S&P 500 is expected to post positive earnings growth. That has not happened since 2018 and lower rates are the cherry on top. 
  2. History looks to be on our side when it comes to the bull market. The median bull market total return is 110%. The current bull market total return is only 62% as of the end of October. In other words, if this run is merely in line with history, there looks to be upside from here. 
This line graph  shows the S&P 500 Index level with all-time highs on a log scale from 1970 – present.

We know there are a lot of reasons beyond what we mentioned to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. That said, we are particularly optimistic about the opportunity that may lie ahead. As outlined in our 2025 Outlook, we think markets are well positioned to build on 2024’s strength in years to come. 

Above all though, we’re grateful for the trust that you place in all of us at J.P. Morgan, and for following markets along with us throughout the year by reading Top Market Takeaways.

Cheers, and a Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

All market and economic data as of 11/27/2024 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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DISCLOSURES

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

Private investments are subject to special risks. Individuals must meet specific suitability standards before investing. This information does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. As a reminder, hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds), private equity funds, real estate funds often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors

Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment, and reinvestment risk.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.

International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.

Private Equity is typically composed of Venture Capital, Leveraged Buyouts, Distressed Investments and Mezzanine Financing, which are all generally considered to be high risk, illiquid investments designed to deliver larger expected returns than publicly traded securities as compensation for their greater risk. As a result, investing in Private Equity is not suitable for all investors.​

Index definitions:

The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).

The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit, call, liquidity and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.

The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases. 

The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

The Russell 2000 Index measures small company stock market performance. The index does not include fees or expenses.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the author's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.

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RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to 'stock market risk' meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.
  • Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.
  • In general, the bond market is volatile and bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. Longer term securities are more prone to price fluctuation than shorter term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss. Dependable income is subject to the credit risk of the issuer of the bond. If an issuer defaults no future income payments will be made.
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  • International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the united states and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.
  • Investments in emerging markets may not be suitable for all investors. Emerging markets involve a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the united states and other nations. Investments in emerging markets can be more volatile.
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  • As a reminder, hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds) often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For complete information, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum.
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  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
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  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

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