Sarah Stillpass
Global Investment Strategist
2024 has been a year for the books. As we close in on its final weeks, we at J.P. Morgan thought it would be timely to practice some Thanksgiving gratitude and reflect upon the past 11 months in markets.
So, before we get to the celebrations – and most importantly, the food – let’s dig into the three things we (and markets) are grateful for this holiday season.
1. Answers to some of 2024’s biggest questions. While navigating uncertainty comes with the territory of being an investor, we acknowledge that both embracing it and forging ahead can be a tall order. Luckily, we are heading into year-end with some of 2024’s biggest questions already answered. We think that is definitely something to be grateful for:
2. Cooling inflation and a sturdy labor market. One of the biggest surprises this year has been how much inflation has continued to cool against a fairly solid economic backdrop. As mentioned above, inflation is still is not fully back to the Fed’s sweet spot, but it is darn close. As prices continue to normalize, that means your Thanksgiving grocery bill and travel plans may be cheaper than last year. Compared to just a year ago, gasoline, car rentals, turkey, potatoes, cranberries and gravy prices are down meaningfully while airfares and pies are still more expensive. As the progress continues, we are especially thankful for a sturdy labor market. Over the last year real wages have grown by 2%, which is strong and the fastest pace achieved since 2015. That has given consumers a bit of relief when it comes to keeping up with price pains.
3. Over 50 all-time highs for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has had a stellar year so far, up over 25% despite election jitters, inflation uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and elevated rates. After gaining 24% in 2023, the index is on pace for the first back-to-back years of 20%+ gains since the late 1990s. The good news is that we think the momentum can continue for a couple of key reasons:
We know there are a lot of reasons beyond what we mentioned to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. That said, we are particularly optimistic about the opportunity that may lie ahead. As outlined in our 2025 Outlook, we think markets are well positioned to build on 2024’s strength in years to come.
Above all though, we’re grateful for the trust that you place in all of us at J.P. Morgan, and for following markets along with us throughout the year by reading Top Market Takeaways.
Cheers, and a Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
All market and economic data as of 11/27/2024 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
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Index definitions:
The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market.
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).
The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit, call, liquidity and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.
Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.
The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.
The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.
The Russell 2000 Index measures small company stock market performance. The index does not include fees or expenses.
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