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Market update
This week’s market moves were dominated by tariff news and expanding defense budgets in Europe.
In the U.S., large-cap stocks are heading towards their worst weekly close since September. The S&P 500 ( -3.6%), NASDAQ 100 ( -4.0%) and small caps (Solactive 2000 -4.2%) all traded down amid tariff volatility.
It was a tale of two equity markets this week. In Europe, Germany is set to amend its constitution to exempt defense and security spending from fiscal limits, unlocking hundreds of billions of euros for investments. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz plans a €500 billion infrastructure fund for transportation, energy and housing over ten years. This shift in fiscal policy aims to bolster European defense in response to changes in U.S. policy. The move is expected to provide a boost to the European economy, and equities in the region rallied. The DAX index ( +7.8%) had its best one-day performance since 2022 on Wednesday and is heading towards its best weekly finish since 2020.
In fixed income, the yield curve steepened as the 2-year yield (3.96%) dropped three basis points and the 10-year yield (4.28%) rose seven basis points. In Europe, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.65% on Thursday, and signaled an arrival at a more neutral policy stance. That, combined with the fiscal spending, has made investors more bullish on the growth outlook. As a result, yields across Europe rose and benchmark German 10-year bonds soared 30 basis points, the most since 1990 (or the biggest sell-off since the fall of the Berlin Wall). Stronger growth extended to the currency, and the euro gained to its strongest level since November.
Below, we dive deeper into what changes have come to tariff policy and what it means for portfolios.
U.S. Tariffs: Where we are and what it means
Tariffs have dominated the headlines this week, with new levies, old tariffs removed or adjusted and everything in between. To help you stay up to speed, we recap where trade policy stands and then put the tariffs in context by the numbers below:
Here’s what was announced this week:
- Tuesday, March 4: 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada (Canadian energy will be taxed at 10%), as well as an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, went into effect.
- Wednesday, March 5: United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) compliant auto imports from Canada and Mexico would be exempt from tariffs until April 2.
- Thursday, March 6: The 25% tariffs on goods and services under the USMCA trade agreement were delayed until April 2.
Needless to say, there have been a lot of moving parts and announcements. Below is a snapshot of the tariff announcements you should know to date.
Tariff tracker
Tariffs in effect/announced by the Trump administration
This table, titled "Tariff tracker," outlines tariffs that are in effect or have been announced by the Trump administration, with data as of March 6, 2025. It includes the following details:
- On February 4th, 2025, a 10% tariff targeting China came into effect, covering all goods. In response, China imposed investment curbs on select U.S. companies and initiated regulatory probes into Google for suspected anti-monopoly law violations.
- On March 4th, 2025, another 10% tariff targeting China was enacted, again covering all goods. China responded with a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton imports from the U.S., and an additional 10% tariff on soybeans, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, totaling approximately $21 billion of American agricultural products.
- On March 4th, 2025, a 25% tariff, with a 10% rate for Canadian energy, targeting Canada and Mexico was enacted, excluding goods and services under the USMCA trade agreement. Canada announced it would impose tariffs on more than $100 billion of American goods, rolled out over the next 21 days, while Mexico is still considering retaliatory measures and has not announced specifics.
- On March 12th, 2025, a 25%, except 200% Russian aluminum, tariff targeting major exporters is set to come into effect, covering steel and aluminum with retaliation measures undetermined.
- On April 2nd, 2025, a 25% tariff targeting the European Union is scheduled to be enacted, covering all goods, with retaliation threatened.
- On April 2nd, 2025, a 25% tariff targeting major exporters is planned, covering autos, chips, and pharma, with retaliation measures undetermined.
- On April 2nd, 2025, a 25% tariff targeting Canada and Mexico is set to be enacted, covering goods and services under the USMCA trade agreement, with retaliation measures undetermined.
- On April 2nd, 2025, unspecified reciprocal tariffs versus VAT and other barriers are planned, with retaliation measures undetermined.
- On May 1st, 2025, a 25% tariff targeting Canada and Mexico is scheduled, covering autos, with retaliation measures undetermined.
- On November 22nd, 2025, an unspecified tariff targeting major exporters is planned, covering copper, with retaliation measures undetermined.
- On December 31st, 2025, unspecified tariffs versus digital taxes targeting the EU, UK, and Canada are planned, with retaliation measures undetermined.
- On December 31st, 2025, a 25% tariff targeting all countries is scheduled, covering timber, with retaliation measures undetermined.
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of March 6, 2025. ** Effective date has yet to be announced.
The delays to tariffs this week are a welcome reprieve, but even considering the delays, the effective tariff rate is at its highest level since the 1970s. What’s more, if the tariffs that were delayed this week eventually get implemented, it would increase the effective tariff rate to the highest level since the 1940s. In other words, it has erased nearly eight decades of globalization, which could lead to as much as $2,000 in additional costs for U.S. households.1
Tariff rates today, not seen since 1970’s, and they could still go up
U.S. effective tariff rate, percentage
This chart illustrates the historical trend of U.S. effective tariff rates from the 1930s to the 2020s. The chart shows a significant decline in tariff rates over the decades, starting from a higher rate in the 1930s and gradually decreasing to lower levels in subsequent decades. The current tariff rates are noted to be at levels not seen since the 1940s. The chart highlights three specific points: an announced tariff rate of 27%, an enacted pre-delays rate of 11%, and an enacted post-delays rate of 5%.
Sources: Goldman Sachs; Census Bureau; Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of March 6, 2025. Note: Enacted post-delays include: 20% China; Enacted pre-delays include: 20% China, 25% Canada (ex- 10% oil) and 25% Mexico. Announced include: reciprocal tariff w/ VAT; 25% EU; 25% steel and aluminum; end of China de-minimis exemption; 25% EU Auto. 25% Mexico.
There’s been a lot of figures thrown around this week, so to help make things tangible, we put the tariffs in context by the numbers:
- The U.S. imported approximately $3.25 trillion worth of goods in 2024. $1.3 trillion of those imports were from the targeted tariff countries (Mexico, Canada, China).
Mexico, Canada, and China account for $1.3tn of imports
Top 10 trading importer to the U.S. in 2024, in USD billions
This chart lists the top 10 trading importers to the U.S. in 2024, measured in billions of dollars. The data highlights the significant contributions of Mexico, Canada, and China to U.S. imports, collectively accounting for $1.3 trillion. Here are the details for each country:
- Mexico: $506 billion
- China: $439 billion
- Canada: $413 billion
- Germany: $160 billion
- Japan: $148 billion
- Vietnam: $137 billion
- South Korea: $132 billion
- Taiwan: $116 billion
- Ireland: $103 billion
- India: $87 billion
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NBC, Data as of December 2024.
- The total trade deficit (exports minus imports) was approximately $1.2 trillion.
- Of that $1.2 trillion trade deficit, nearly half ($529 billion) is attributed to the countries targeted by recent tariffs.
The U.S. runs a trade deficit relative to tariff target countries
U.S. net exports (exports - imports) across trading partners, in USD billions
This chart illustrates the U.S. trade deficit with key trading partners—Mexico, Canada, and China—from 2015 to 2024, measured in billions of dollars. The trade deficit is calculated as net exports (exports minus imports) across these trading partners. Here are the details for each year:
- 2015: The U.S. had a trade deficit of $53 billion with Mexico, $2 billion with Canada, and $365 billion with China.
- 2016: The deficit was $58 billion with Mexico, $2 billion with Canada, and $344 billion with China.
- 2017: The deficit was $63 billion with Mexico, $2 billion with Canada, and $387 billion with China.
- 2018: The deficit was $72 billion with Mexico, $3 billion with Canada, and $420 billion with China.
- 2019: The deficit was $93 billion with Mexico, $8 billion with Canada, and $330 billion with China.
- 2020: The deficit was $105 billion with Mexico, $8 billion with Canada, and $313 billion with China.
- 2021: The deficit was $99 billion with Mexico, $31 billion with Canada, and $385 billion with China.
- 2022: The deficit was $120 billion with Mexico, $62 billion with Canada, and $417 billion with China.
- 2023: The deficit was $145 billion with Mexico, $47 billion with Canada, and $307 billion with China.
- 2024: The deficit was $163 billion with Mexico, $48 billion with Canada, and $318 billion with China.
Sources: Haver Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau Data as of December 2024
- Looking one level deeper at the sector level, manufacturing – which includes computer components, transportation, machinery, petroleum products and more – from tariff-targeted countries drives most of the imports. Of the $1.3 trillion worth of products the U.S. imported from China, Mexico and Canada in 2024, manufacturing accounted for $1.1 trillion or 86%.
We dissected the biggest drivers of the imports across subsectors. Notably, each of the countries targeted by tariffs is a dominant provider of subsector imports.
- Mexico accounts for $95 billion of U.S. car imports (about one-third of U.S. total car imports).
- Canada accounts for $98 billion of crude petroleum imports (more than half of U.S. total petroleum imports). For more detail on the energy market, read Michael Cembalest’s latest annual Energy paper, Heliocentrism.
- China accounts for $52 billion of phone imports (43% of U.S. total phone imports).
Mexico, Canada, and China all dominate various imports
U.S. product imports by country, 2024 as a percentage of total category imports
This chart displays the distribution of U.S. product imports by country for the year 2024, expressed as a percentage of total category imports. The categories and their respective import shares are as follows:
- Cars: Mexico accounts for 35% of imports, Canada for 14%, China for a negligible amount, and the rest of the world for 50%.
- Crude Petroleum: Mexico contributes 7% of imports, Canada dominates with 59%, China is negligible, and the rest of the world accounts for 34%.
- Phones: Mexico provides 10% of imports, Canada is negligible, China supplies 43%, and the rest of the world contributes 46%.
- Computers: Mexico accounts for 32% of imports, Canada is negligible, China provides 28%, and the rest of the world accounts for 40%.
- Car Parts: Mexico leads with 46% of imports, Canada contributes 11%, China provides 8%, and the rest of the world accounts for 35%.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Haver Analytics. Data as of December 31, 2024.
With history as a guide, we can analyze the 2018 to 2019 trade war, what was implemented and what it meant for the companies across sectors that were heavy importers. The United States enacted several tariffs primarily targeting China, but also affecting other countries:
- Steel and aluminum tariffs: In March 2018, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports from most countries, citing national security concerns.
- Section 301 tariffs on China: These tariffs were implemented in several rounds, targeting a wide range of Chinese goods:
- First round (July 2018): A 25% tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, including machinery and electronics.
- Second round (August 2018): A 25% tariff on an additional $16 billion worth of Chinese goods.
- Third round (September 2018): A 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which was later increased to 25% in May 2019. This round targeted consumer goods, electronics and furniture.
- Fourth round (December 2019): A 15% tariff on $120 billion worth of Chinese goods, which was later reduced to 7.5% as part of the phase one trade deal.
- Tariffs on European Union (EU) goods: In October 2019, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European goods, including aircraft, wine and cheese, following a World Trade Organization ruling on illegal EU subsidies to Airbus.
- Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods: Although initially imposed, the steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico were lifted in May 2019 as part of negotiations for the USMCA.
Amidst all the tariffs outlined above, five of the top 10 importing industries experienced a decline in import costs as a percentage of total costs. For those industries that did experience a price increase, none saw a climb greater than 2%. Although the tariffs were manageable for companies in the last round, and most companies could fairly easily pass the increased costs on to consumers, this time around the effective tariff rate has increased significantly, and we expect the impact to be more onerous.
The largest imports had a decrease of import costs as a percentage of total costs
Change in import share of total costs for the top 10 importing NAICs industries (2019-2023)
This bar graph shows the change in import share of total costs for the top 10 importing NAICs industries from 2019-2023.
- For Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts the change was 2%.
- For Machinery the change was 1.4%.
- For Electrical equipment, appliances, and components the change was 1.2%.
- For Chemical products the change was 1.1%. For Primary metals the change was 0.9%.
- For Petroleum and coal products the change was -0.3%.
- For Computer and electronic products the change was -1%.
- For Air transportation the change was -2.3%.
- For Furniture and related products the change was -2.8%.
- For Other transportation equipment the change was -8.3%.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bank of America Equity & Quant Strategy. Data as of December 2023.
What does it all mean? The situation remains extremely fluid, with tariffs being announced and delayed all within the same week. We continue to evaluate our base case, but risks look large. Our base case accounts for durably higher tariff rates on Chinese imports and other products that are deemed to be important to national security, but the risk is clearly for higher tariff rates on a wider range of countries and goods.
Our strongest view in this scenario is that uncertainty will persist and headlines will continue to move the market. We think the most important thing for portfolios in this environment is to add resilience. We advise investors to diversify across geographies, themes and sectors. Consider uncorrelated assets such as gold, which have rallied this year and shown little sensitivity to trade-related announcements.
Questions on how to add resilience to your portfolio? Reach out to your J.P. Morgan advisor.
All market and economic data as of 03/07/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
References
The Budget Lab at Yale, "The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of 20% Tariffs on China and 25% Tariffs on Canada and Mexico." (March 3, 2025)
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This website provides information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"). When JPMS acts as a broker-dealer, a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client will be different in some important ways than a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client when we are acting as an investment advisor. A client should carefully read the agreements and disclosures received (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable) in connection with our provision of services for important information about the capacity in which we will be acting.
INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED
J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.
Please read additional Important Information in conjunction with these pages.