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Top Market Takeaways

Contributors

Jacob Manoukian

U.S. Head of Investment Strategy

 

Market update

We won’t waste your time with a market update. It could be irrelevant by the time you are reading this anyway.

Spotlight: 5 takeaways from the tariff tantrum

Ever since “Liberation Day,” markets have been under pressure. In this week’s note, we wanted to share five of our most important takeaways.

1. Stock markets hate tariffs, for good reason. Tariffs are taxes that importers pay. They can either take the hit in their margins or share the costs with suppliers and consumers. The government siphons the cash. Even after President Donald Trump paused his “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days, the duties left in place are at their highest levels since the Great Depression. Businesses are scrambling to adapt. Apple, the largest goods company in the world, chartered airplanes to transport 1.5 million iPhones from India and China to the U.S. before duties hit. Reasonable people can debate the pros and cons of tariffs. However, it seems clear that the proposed duties are antithetical to the business models of the multinational corporations that make up the U.S. stock market. Our rough math suggests that the high-teens effective tariff rate currently in place could wipe out most of the real economic and S&P 500 earnings growth that we expected this year. The hit could be worse for goods companies reliant on multinational supply chains. This matters for both the high tech (the semiconductor index is down over -20% so far this year) and the low tech (so is Yeti – the cooler company).

2. Global investors are asking questions about U.S. assets. What is the ultimate goal of White House trade policy? Will tariff revenue collected help to offset the nearly $6 trillion increase in the budget deficit that the House and Senate agreed on in the budget reconciliation process? Will regulatory and tax uncertainty curtail business investment and spending within the United States? Can the U.S. consumer power through the tariff shock? Does the return on investment of artificial intelligence (AI) capital spending still make sense given higher potential input costs of technology hardware, which is largely sourced from South Asia? When those questions get louder, it manifests as simultaneous poor performance from U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar. Historically, the U.S. has had the lowest share of trading days where the currency, bond market and stock market all sold off across countries that we track. Last week, the dollar, Treasury bonds and the stock market all lost value. Global diversification seems like a prudent strategy, as does an allocation to gold. 

Line chart showing price of gold in dollars per ounce and DXY Dollar Index level in dollars from December 2024-April 2025.

The dollar is declining while gold gains

 

Dollar/ounce; DXY Dollar Index level

 

The chart displays the price of gold (LHS) in dollars per ounce and the DXY Dollar Index level in dollars (RHS) from December 2024 to April 2025. The LHS of the chart represents the gold price, while the RHS represents the Dollar Index level.

  • On December 31, 2024, the gold price was $2,624.50 per ounce, and the Dollar Index level was 108.487.
  • By January 31, 2025, the gold price had risen to $2,798.41, while the Dollar Index level was 108.37.
  • On February 28, 2025, the gold price was $2,857.83, and the Dollar Index level was 107.614.
  • By March 31, 2025, the gold price had increased to $3,123.57, with the Dollar Index level at 104.21.
  • On April 10, 2025, the gold price reached $3,176.23, while the Dollar Index level decreased to 100.941.

 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of April 10, 2025.

Line chart showing price of gold in dollars per ounce and DXY Dollar Index level in dollars from December 2024-April 2025.

 

3. Market volatility can drive a policy response. Based on the commentary from the administration and subsequent reporting, it does seem like excess market volatility, especially in fixed income and currency markets, drove a policy pivot this week. Investors should remember that the tariffs are not codified into law. The administration is relying on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy these duties. There is already some speculation that this use case is illegal and would be struck down by the Supreme Court. However, legal clarity could take weeks or months and it seems like further market volatility would stimulate further de-escalation from the White House before the courts weigh in. The chances of further de-escalation or judicial intervention are why it doesn’t seem prudent to make wholesale portfolio changes with equities already down over 15% from peaks. Investors may root for a policy pivot, but they also have to focus on what the potential downside for stocks could be. It is encouraging that the S&P 500 tested the old highs (about 4800) from early 2022 and bounced during intraday trading. The next level of support could be at 4500, or about 15% below current levels. To get there, we assume that investors would apply an 18x trailing multiple (where previous troughs have been over the last 10 years) to the about $250 of earnings per share that the S&P 500 generated in 2024. Further, about 4500 on the S&P 500 would imply a about 30% peak to trough drawdown, which is consistent with the experience of past cyclical and event-driven bear markets. 

Line chart showing S&P 500 Index level from the year 2020 to 2025.

The S&P is still holding up against the 2022 highs

 

S&P 500 Index level

 

The chart represents the S&P 500 Index level from the year 2020 to 2025. In 2020, the S&P 500 Index level was 3,732.04 on December 30 and ended at 3,756.07 on December 31. In 2021, the index level began at 3,700.65 on January 4 and reached a high of 4,796.56 on December 31. In 2022, the index level started at 4,796.56 on January 3 and ended at 3,839.5 on December 30. In 2023, the index level began at 3,824.14 on January 3 and reached a high of 4,594.63 on December 1. In 2024, the index level started at 4,742.83 on January 2 and ended at 5,954.5 on December 31. In 2025, the index level began at 5,868.55 on January 2 and was at 5,268.05 on April 10. The 2022 High average S&P 500 Index level over this period is 4,796.56 on January 7, 2022.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of April 10, 2025.

Line chart showing S&P 500 Index level from the year 2020 to 2025.

 

4. Volatility creates opportunities across the risk spectrum. This week, we saw record activity from investors who trade on a tactical basis. Municipal bonds (a traditionally sleepy corner of the investment landscape by design) had one of their worst days on record on Tuesday. Forced liquidation from institutional holders generated the opportunity to buy bonds with nearly 5% coupons at par value. Activity among our clients was five to 10 times “normal” levels. We saw similar interest in equity linked structured notes. Right now, investors can potentially generate coupons of over 10% if equity markets are higher over the next 54 weeks, while potentially maintaining full principal protection down to a barrier 10% below current levels. This strategy allows investors an opportunity to increase market exposure without the full volatility of equity markets. Finally, we are looking for opportunities in both the banks and software space. Software valuations have corrected at a time when AI adoption could benefit from rapidly declining compute costs. Banks would benefit from a greater focus from the administration on the deregulatory agenda that should incentivize a handoff in borrowing from the public sector to the private sector. Opportunities also exist outside of markets. It could be an opportune time to consider a Roth IRA conversion, to gift to family members, to optimize asset location or to exercise stock options.

5. Market timing is futile and staying invested is paramount. Over the last 20 years, seven of the 10 best days in markets occurred within 15 days of the 10 worst days. Said differently, days with significant stock market losses cluster with days that see outsized gains. Last Friday, the S&P 500 lost -6%. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained +9.5%. Missing Wednesday’s gain is equivalent to missing nearly 1.5 years of equity returns based on our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs). Good luck timing this market. So how should investors think about the prospects of future returns? The S&P 500 has never failed to make new all-time highs after sell-offs and bear markets. If you think it will take three years to get back to the all-time high, you would expect to earn a +6.8% average annual return including a 1.5% dividend yield, just ahead of our long-term assumption of +6.7% per year.

Bar chart showing S&P 500 average annualized total return and the cumulative total return.

Even if it takes 3 years to regain highs, returns are in line with our LTCMAs

 

S&P 500 average annual total return, percentage

 

This chart shows the S&P 500 average annualized total return required to get back to peak levels and the cumulative total return if highs are regained.

  • In 1 year, the average annualized return required to get back to peak is 18.1% and the cumulative total return if highs are regained is 18%.
  • In 2 years, the average annualized return required to get back to peak is 9.5% and the cumulative total return if highs are regained is 20%.
  • In 3 years, the average annualized return required to get back to peak is 6.8% and the cumulative total return if highs are regained is 22%.
  • In 4 years, the average annualized return required to get back to peak is 5.4% and the cumulative total return if highs are regained is 24%.
  • In 5 years, the average annualized return required to get back to peak is 4.6% and the cumulative total return if highs are regained is 25%.

 

Source: J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of April 10, 2025. Market high is 6,144 reached on February 19, 2025, and current level is 5,268 on April 10, 2025.

Bar chart showing S&P 500 average annualized total return and the cumulative total return.

 

Perhaps the most important thing investors can do during times of market volatility is to revisit their plan. A clear definition of investment success is a critical input for portfolio construction. Your J.P. Morgan advisor is here to help you navigate market volatility in the short-run while focusing on your success in the long-run.

All market and economic data as of 04/11/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.


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DISCLOSURES

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

Index definitions:

The Solactive United States 2000 Index intends to track the performance of the largest 1001 to 3000 companies from the United States stock market. Constituents are selected based on company market capitalization and weighted by free float market capitalization.

The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).

The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit, call, liquidity and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.

The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.

The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

The Russell 2000 Index measures small company stock market performance. The index does not include fees or expenses.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the author's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.

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  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
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