In “normal” periods when the economy is healthy, bond buyers typically demand to be paid more interest on long-term bonds than they do on short-term bonds. So, a 10-year bond yield would be higher than that of a 2-year bond yield to compensate for the opportunity cost and interest rate risk of locking up money for a longer period of time.

Typically, as the Fed lifts the short-term interest rates it controls to tackle inflation, yields rise across the curve. But if investors believe those higher borrowing costs will eventually hurt the economy and the Fed will be forced to later ease monetary policy, then long-term bond yields may stay more anchored. That can cause a yield curve inversion where short-term bond yields are higher than long-term bond yields.

Historically, yield curve inversion has been seen as a reliable predictor of recession. This year, the Treasury yield curve inverted by the most in four decades.

However, just this past week, the yield curve swerved the other direction—steepening by a magnitude of 0.50%. While that may seem like an encouraging sign, it is often the case that the yield curve re-steepens just prior to or during a recession as the market starts to anticipate future rate cuts from the Fed in response to a weakening growth outlook.

The Treasury yield curve

The message: The bond market suspects that the recent turmoil in the regional banking sector is likely to weigh on economic growth in the near future and the Fed is on the verge of easing its policy stance.

However, that does not mean that there are no opportunities for investors. Looking back at the past seven Fed hiking cycles, U.S. investment grade bonds returned investors an average of 26% over the two years following the last rate hike1. Said differently, and while past performance is not indicative of future results, if you invested in high quality bonds when the end of the tightening cycle was looming, you were, on average, well rewarded for doing so.

All market data from Bloomberg Finance L.P., 3/30/23.

References

1.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. Data as of 2022.

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International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.

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Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.

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