Key takeaways
- J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts that the global incretin market, which includes GLP-1s, will reach $200 billion by 2030.
- It also estimates that approximately 25 million Americans will be on GLP-1 treatment by 2030, up from around 10 million in 2025, 6 million in 2024 and 5 million in 2023.
- The introduction of generics and oral pills is expected to increase usage both in the U.S. and around the world.
Ozempic. Wegovy. Mounjaro. Zepbound. Originally approved to treat diabetes, these GLP-1 agonists have since made headlines not just for their ability to manage obesity but to also positively influence a host of other conditions, from cardiovascular risk and fatty liver disease to neurogenerative diseases.
In 2026, the size of the GLP-1 market is expected to grow significantly thanks to reduced prices, seniors getting access to obesity drugs and the approval of oral GLP-1s. Approved by the FDA at the end of 2025 with a second product expected in April of this year, the oral GLP-1s are expected to open a new frontier for potential users including those hesitant to use injectable options.
How far will this phenomenon go? And what will it mean for the sectors it touches, from pharmaceuticals and biotech to food and beverage?
The U.S. patient market for GLP-1s is projected to grow
The forecast for GLP-1 usage in the U.S. is expected to grow to 30 million users by 2030.
What are GLP-1s?
GLP-1 agonists are a class of medications used to treat type 2 diabetes (T2D). Besides helping to lower blood sugar levels, they also suppress appetite and reduce calorie intake — fueling their popularity for treating obesity and managing weight gain. “GLP-1s have been used to treat T2D since 2005,” said Chris Schott, a senior analyst covering the U.S. Diversified Biopharma sector at J.P Morgan.
Since then, the science of GLP-1s has continued to improve. At J.P. Morgan’s Healthcare Conference in San Francisco this year, analysts highlighted research that showed improvements not only in efficacy, but also in tolerability (i.e. how manageable a drug’s side effects are for patients) and adherence (i.e. how easy it is for patients to stick to a prescribed medication), as well as benefits for comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease.
The next frontier of GLP-1s was reached with the launch of Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 pill, which was approved at the tail end of 2025 and became widely available in early January. An oral option developed by Eli Lilly is expected to hit the market in early 2Q, and analysts expect demand to be high.
“The launch of oral GLP-1s coupled with lower prices and broader access (including Medicare and Medicaid coverage in the U.S.) should drive higher utilization and market penetration as more affordable and convenient options become available,” Schott said.
Insurance coverage for GLP-1s is expanding
A key development in the growth of GLP-1 usage, at least in the U.S., is in the realm of health insurance and coverage. While most major insurers and Medicare plans cover GLP-1s for T2D, coverage for GLP-1s for obesity and weight management is much more limited and often excluded from standard plans. And brand-name GLP-1s sit at a price point that may be out of reach for most consumers.
But access may be expanding. As 2025 ended, the Trump administration announced that it would seek to lower costs and increase access to GLP-1s for Medicare and Medicaid recipients.
A pilot program called BALANCE, announced by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), seeks to negotiate favorable drug pricing and coverage terms with manufacturers of GLP-1 medications on behalf of state Medicaid agencies and Medicare Part D plan sponsors. Under this plan, Medicare recipients are expected to be covered for GLP-1s, with a $50 monthly cap on patient out-of-pocket spending.
Additionally, pressure to cover GLP-1s could become a hot-button issue for private market and employer-sponsored plans. “The health care system is experiencing a dramatic shift in how medication access is covered, largely driven by employers’ desire to offer programs that best meet workforce needs,” said Lisa Gill, a senior analyst covering Managed Care at J.P. Morgan. “However, the largest roadblock remains the cost of covering GLP-1s. Notably, about 55% of commercial employers currently cover GLP-1s for obesity, but 15% of those have dropped coverage due to unsustainable costs.”
“The proliferation of oral GLP-1s is expected to further increase pressure from employees to provide coverage,” she added.
“The launch of oral GLP-1s coupled with lower prices and broader access (including Medicare and Medicaid coverage in the U.S.) should drive higher utilization and market penetration as more affordable and convenient options become available.”
Chris Schott
Senior Analyst covering the U.S. Diversified Biopharma sector, J.P. Morgan
GLP-1 supply is expected to increase across the globe
GLP-1 penetration remains low globally, with roughly 7% of diabetes patients and 2% of the obese population currently using these medications. However, two factors could drive increased supply, and possible increases in demand.
The first is the introduction of oral pills, which, along with being easier to use, also remove the necessity of cold-chain supply — the requirement that injectables be kept at a low temperature before they reach users — which will help GLP-1s reach areas that otherwise would not be able to support these refrigeration needs. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have both announced ambitious investments in new and existing facilities to ramp up production of oral and traditional injectables, in part to accommodate for the expansion in medical coverage.
The other factor is that patents for GLP-1s are set to expire in large markets like China, India, Brazil, Canada and Turkey, where 40% of the global population (and roughly 33% of adults considered obese) live. While the entry of generics could lower prices and possibly increase market penetration, large capex requirements for their manufacture may ultimately restrict the overall impact on supply.
How GLP-1 growth could affect other industries
With this growth in supply, pharmaceutical companies and investors have taken note. After discontinuing its internal GLP-1 in May of 2025 for causing liver issues, Pfizer won a bidding war against seven other companies for Metsera, which is developing a variety of incretin assets, paying $10 billion in one of 2025’s largest M&A deals.
It is estimated that upwards of 30 million Americans will be on GLP-1 treatment in 2030 (an increase of 10 million from those on branded GLP-1s in 2026), making the growth of GLP-1s one of the key storylines to watch in the new year.
Less clear is how GLP-1s will influence other industries, from adjacencies like medical device technology to downstream sectors like food and beverage. “GLP-1 treatments are projected to lead to an annual revenue reduction of $30–$55 billion by 2030–2034 for the food and beverage industry, with consumers taking in 21% fewer calories and spending 31% less on groceries,” said Lucas Ferreira, who covers Latin America Food, Beverages and Agribusiness at J.P. Morgan.
Robbie Marcus, a senior analyst for U.S. Medical Supplies and Devices at J.P. Morgan, noted that disruption in the medtech sector has so far been minimal. “While GLP-1s are reshaping obesity and diabetes care, the medical technology sector continues to benefit from broader healthcare trends. There is no indication that GLP-1s have negatively impacted medtech volumes or pricing. Instead, the sector remains resilient.”
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