Sarah Stillpass
Global Investment Strategist
Alan Wynne
Global Investment Strategist
Summer means warmer weather and longer days, but it also means that Mid-Year Outlook season is here. Before we launch ours next week, we wanted to check in on how the key views contained in our 2024 year ahead edition have unfolded. What worked, what didn’t and what we are excited about for the future.
Nearly halfway through the year, we continue to see a diverse set of opportunities for investors. While there are many things to be excited about, you can probably guess what takes the cake: AI.
Over the past six months, we’ve seen AI prove that its hype is real. Near-term, the AI revolution has already meaningfully impacted corporate behavior, investment and earnings: 50% of the S&P 500’s market cap has mentioned AI on earnings calls, although less than 5% of U.S. firms are actively using the technology. To us, that means there could be a long runway for adoption ahead.
For now, the first round of winners are closely linked to semiconductor manufacturing and cloud computing: Companies like Nvidia have seen it boost their earnings results above even lofty expectations. We think the theme has staying power and will accelerate in the years to come. We could even see broad economic productivity gains by the end of the decade.
From energy and infrastructure to healthcare, dozens of industries stand to benefit from AI-related innovation.
It’s not just AI that has us excited. We also think we are at a turning point for commercial real estate. Stable vacancy rates, improving (if still tight) credit conditions and rent growth suggest it's a favorable time for investors to potentially add to the asset class. Additionally, municipal yields are now higher than corporate bond yields on a tax equivalent basis for U.S. taxpayers, making it an opportune time to consider adding exposure.
As we reflect on the past six months and look to the road ahead, we are constructive despite the risks posed by fragilities like the U.S. election or geopolitical events.
The Mid-Year Outlook marks a checkpoint on a longer investment journey. While nothing is certain, ensuring that your portfolio is aligned with your long-term plan is likely the best way to prepare for the future.
Your J.P. Morgan advisor is here to help.
All market and economic data as of 06/07/2024 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
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DISCLOSURES
The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.
Index definitions:
The Bloomberg EuroAgg Index is a benchmark that measures the investment grade, euro-denominated, fixed-rate bond market, including treasuries, government-related, corporate and securitized issues. Inclusion is based on currency denomination of a bond and not country of risk of the issuer.
The Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds. The Bloomberg Pan-European High Yield Index measures the market of non-investment grade, fixed-rate corporate bonds denominated in the following currencies: euro, pounds sterling, Danish krone, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Inclusion is based on the currency of issue, and not the domicile of the issuer.
The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded
The ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index (PVAR) is designed to track the performance of floating- and variable-rate investment-grade and below-investment-grade U.S. dollar preferred stock, as well as certain types of hybrid securities determined by the index provider, comparable to preferred stocks, that are issued by corporations in the U.S. market.
The Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed rate and non-convertible.
The Bloomberg USAgg Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight – or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.
The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).
The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit, call, liquidity and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.
The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.
Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.
The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.
The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.
The Russell 2000 Index measures small company stock market performance. The index does not include fees or expenses.
We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.
The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the author's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.
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