Explore our services
  • Wealth Planning
    Receive a multigenerational wealth plan with personalized strategies and guidance.
  • Investing
    Experience a holistic approach to investing, centered on your goals and priorities.
  • Lending
    Unlock liquidity with a variety of customized lending products, strategies and solutions.
  • Banking
    Access a variety of banking products and services tailored to your needs.
  • Family wealth platform
    Explore our platform of specialized services designed for ultra-high-net-worth clients.

Learn about us

Discover our approach, digital tools and community initiatives 

An aerial shot of four students and their teacher wearing warm outdoor clothing on an overcast day in Northumberland. They are on a field trip and are crossing a river by walking over stepping stones. Video also available of this scenario

By Madison Faller

Global Investment Strategist

By Madison Faller

Our Top Market Takeaways for November 3, 2023

Sweet relief. Heading into Friday morning, the S&P 500 U-turned from its recent sell-off and is now on track for its best week of 2023. Bond yields, especially on the longer end, have fallen dramatically. That’s propelled U.S. Treasuries to one of their best weeks of the year. Both 10-year and 30-year yields have fallen roughly 40 basis points from their highs just a few weeks ago. Even U.S. high yield bonds showed up to the rally, with spreads tightening on Thursday by the most since February.

So as we barrel toward the end of the year, are markets finally finding direction?

This week has been jampacked with big-picture catalysts – from a flurry of central bank meetings to a handful of economic data prints, to a new sense of the government debt situation – and each seems to have brought a clearer sense of the path forward.

Here is what we learned, and why we think it may bring more comfort for investors:

1. Pretty much every major central bank has said they’re done hiking (just without actually saying they’re done hiking).

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all kept policy rates unchanged at their latest meetings. Only the Bank of Japan is left holding on to an easier policy stance, and still, it’s slowly shifting toward tightening.

The line graph shows the historical and implied policy rates across 4 central banks: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

Central bank policy rates and market-implied expectations, percentage

The chart is a line graph of the historical and implied policy rates across four central banks: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

The U.S. policy rate starts at 0.25% on December 31, 2014, and trends upward to 2.5% on December 31, 2018.

The first data point for all three starts in December 2015 when the Federal Reserve’s policy rate was 0.25%, the BoE’s policy rate was 0.5%, the ECB’s policy rate was -0.2%, and the BoJ’s policy rate was 0.1%. 

From December 2016 to December 2018, the Fed began raising interest rates, eventually reaching a level of 2.5%. During the same time period, the BoE raised and held rates at a level of 0.75%. In July 2019, the Fed began cutting rates from 2.5% before eventually stopping at a level of 0.25% in March 2020. The Fed began rapidly raising its policy rate slightly after the BoE in March 2022, reaching 3.25% in September 2023, and eventually touching a level of 5.5% as of October 30, 2023.

In February of 2016, the BoJ lowered its policy rate to -0.1%, the ECB lowered its rate to -0.4 while there was no change to the Fed (0.5%) and BoE (0.5%) policy rates. Since cutting rates in 2016, the ECB left policy rates unchanged at -0.4%, and the BoJ has left their policy rate unchanged at -0.1% all the way until present day (October 30, 2023). Starting in June 2022 the ECB hiked its policy rate to 4.0% by October 2023. During both time periods the BoJ has kept their policy rate unchanged at a level of -0.1%.

In August 2016, the BoE lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while there was no change to the Fed (0.5%), ECB (-0.4%) and BoJ (-0.1) policy rates. The BoE also cut their policy rate in March 2020 to a level of 0.1%, while the BoJ and ECB left their policy unchanged during this time at -0.1% and -0.4% respectively. In December 2021, BoE began rapidly increasing rates reaching 3% in November 2022, to their current level of 5.25% as of October 30, 2023.

Implied future rate for the Fed lands at 4.8% by November 2024, 4.9% by September 2024 for the BOE, 3.2% for the ECB by October 2024, and 0.2% by September 2024 for the BOJ.

The line graph shows the historical and implied policy rates across 4 central banks: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

After months of questioning when the end would come, and even one “skip” meeting followed by a hike thereafter, conviction that the Fed is actually done with hikes is growing. Markets are pricing in just a ~30% chance of one more hike. If it comes at all, investors are betting on it happening in January. By then, policymakers should have an even clearer read on the economy, and this month’s data has pointed to more cooling.

Why it matters: When the Fed has officially hiked its last time in the past, that’s tended to provide a runway for markets to rally. In the last seven Fed hiking cycles, U.S. stocks and investment-grade bonds meaningfully outperformed cash – by 19% and 14%, respectively – over the following two years.

2. The economy is slowing a bit, and that’s not a bad thing.

So far, inflation has cooled without much economic pain. As we noted last week Q3’s U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) print was a case in point for how resilient growth has been.

But from here, growth probably needs to slow down a little to ensure that inflation doesn’t reaccelerate (and prompt more moves from central banks). This week, from manufacturing and services reads to labor market data (see the cooldown in hiring in today’s jobs report), signs have pointed to some fading momentum. CEOs have echoed the same this earnings season, with more notes of dampening demand and shifts in spending patterns (even as the overall trend is still a solid one).

In more good news for a potential soft landing, word also came that the economy might be getting more “productive.” In other words, it’s using all the resources it has – from all its workers and its capital to its technological investments – more efficiently than it used to. The latest read on U.S. productivity, measured by how much employees are producing per hour, advanced by the most in three years. Meanwhile, unit labor costs, or how much a business pays its workers to produce one unit of whatever it’s producing, fell last quarter – its first decline since 2022. Taken together, this means inflation may be able to keep cooling while the economy avoids a meaningful contraction.

3. The Treasury plans to borrow less than expected next quarter.

Bond yields surged over the summer in part as the Treasury said it was going to have to issue more debt to help fund the government’s spending. All else equal, more Treasury supply puts downward pressure on prices and upward pressure on yields.

Fast forward to this week: In its latest update, the Treasury said it plans to borrow less than it anticipated in Q4, and it also intends to issue less longer-dated bonds than expected to get its job done. That shift may make it easier for the market to digest the added supply.

While we still need to see how buyers will take on this latest round of supply, this week’s news signals that bond markets might be faced with less volatility ahead.

Markets hate uncertainty, and they thrive on clarity.

In all, a better sense of the path forward offers more runway to rally.

It’s a bond buyer’s market with interest rates at today’s levels. One of the most popular measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve (i.e., the difference between 2-year and 10-year bond yields) has moved from about 100 bps of inversion in July to about 30 bps today. For investors, this means that you don’t need to give up nearly as much yield to extend duration. Across the maturities, risk spectrums and issuer types, investors have the opportunity to buy bonds at yields we haven’t seen in 15 years. For U.S. taxpayers, we think municipal bonds look especially compelling, offering the potential for an even greater pickup in yield, low default risk and an attractive entry point with seasonal supply trends. To echo our earlier point and add potential urgency, yields have a habit of falling (and prices rising) after the Fed is done raising interest rates.

This line graph shows the 10-year Treasury yield since the start of 2023.

10-year U.S. Treasury yield, percentage

The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield since the start of 2023.

  • The yield starts at 3.87% on January 2, 2023.
  • The yield trends downward to 3.37% on January 18, 2023.
  • Then the yield trends upward to 4.06% on March 2, 2023.
  • Then the yield trends downward to 3.31% on April 6, 2023.
  • Then the yield trends upward to 4.03% on July 6, 2023.
  • The yield continues to trend upward to 4.99% on October 19, 2023.
  • The yield finishes at 4.68% on November 2, 2023.

The labels and associated dates and yields (taken from the day prior to the event) are:

  • February FOMC Meeting: February 1, 3.42%
  • U.S. regional banking crisis: March 8, 3.96%
  • May FOMC meeting kickstarts “higher for longer” speculation: May 3, 3.57%
  • Bank of Japan loosens its yield curve control policy: July 28, 3.87%
  • Fitch downgrades U.S. government credit rating: August 1, 3.96%
  • U.S. Treasury ramps up issuance: August 2, 4.02%
  • September FOMC meeting: September 20, 4.36%
  • Israel-Hamas conflict: October 7, 4.72%
  • November FOMC meeting and Treasury refunding announcement: November 1, 4.83%
This line graph shows the 10-year Treasury yield since the start of 2023.

We think now offers an entry point for U.S. stocks. Even after this week’s rally, stocks are still pricing in a lot of bad stuff. Roughly 70% of S&P 500 stocks are in correction territory (or down 10% or more from their 52-week highs), and broadly, valuations are about back in line with long-term averages. Seasonality could also prove favorable: Going back to 1950, November and December are usually two of the best months of the year. Finally, with more stability in bond yields, investors can soon refocus on fundamentals. Earnings are having a transition quarter, and expectations from here point to future growth. That’s especially true for tech+, where improving earnings and the power of artificial intelligence (AI) combine to create a compelling case.

This bar graph shows the S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year as a percentage.

S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year percentage

The chart shows the S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year as a percentage with Q3 2023 on being consensus expectations.

  • In Q1 2019, earnings growth was 0.2%
  • In Q2 2019, earnings growth was 1.2%
  • In Q3 2019, earnings growth was -1.6%
  • In Q4 2019, earnings growth was 1.0%
  • In Q1 2020, earnings growth was -14.1%
  • In Q2 2020, earnings growth was -32.2%
  • In Q3 2020, earnings growth was -6.7%
  • In Q4 2020, earnings growth was 1.2%
  • In Q1 2021, earnings growth was 47%
  • In Q2 2021, earnings growth was 86.9%
  • In Q3 2021, earnings growth was 36.7%
  • In Q4 2021, earnings growth was 30.9%
  • In Q1 2022, earnings growth was 10.3%
  • In Q2 2022, earnings growth was 7.4%
  • In Q3 2022, earnings growth was 3.3%
  • In Q4 2022, earnings growth was -3.4%
  • In Q1 2023, earnings growth was -1.4%
  • In Q2 2023, earnings growth was -3.8%
  • For Q3 2023, expected earnings growth is 3.7%
  • For Q4 2023, expected earnings growth is 3.9%
  • For Q1 2024, expected earnings growth is 7.2%
  • For Q2 2024, expected earnings growth is 10.8%
  • For Q3 2024, expected earnings growth is 10.1%
  • For Q4 2024, expected earnings growth is 16.4%
  • Expected Q2 2023, EPS Contraction:-3.8%
  • Expected Q3 2023, EPS Growth: +3.7%
This bar graph shows the S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year as a percentage.

Finally, if we’re wrong, alternatives can be a powerful force in portfolios beyond diversification. For example, infrastructure and real assets can offer protection if inflation lingers (or, in a worst case, reaccelerates). Private credit can benefit in an environment with higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, and experienced managers can capitalize on stress in commercial real estate.

In all, we see opportunity in a world in transition.

Your J.P. Morgan team is here to discuss what it means for you and the opportunities we see ahead.

All market data from FactSet and Bloomberg Finance L.P., 11/03/23.

Connect with a Wealth Advisor

Our Wealth Advisors begin by getting to know you personally. To get started, tell us about your needs and we’ll reach out to you.

Connect now

DISCLOSURES

Small capitalization companies typically carry more risk than well-established "blue-chip" companies since smaller companies can carry a higher degree of market volatility than most large cap and/or blue-chip companies.

International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.

Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations.

“Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control.

The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise. 

Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

The MSCI World Index is a broad global developed markets equity benchmark designed to support: Asset allocation: Consistent, broad representation of the performance of developed equity markets worldwide, without home bias.

The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index or "the Agg" is a broad-based fixed-income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.

The NYSE FANG+ Index is an equal-dollar weighted index designed to represent a segment of the technology and consumer discretionary sectors consisting of highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet's Google.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.
  • The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to 'stock market risk' meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • As a reminder, hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds) often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For complete information, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum.
  • Structured products involve derivatives and risks that may not be suitable for all investors. The most common risks include, but are not limited to, risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments, issuer credit quality risk, risk of lack of uniform standard pricing, risk of adverse events involving any underlying reference obligations, risk of high volatility, risk of illiquidity/little to no secondary market, and conflicts of interest. Before investing in a structured product, investors should review the accompanying offering document, prospectus or prospectus supplement to understand the actual terms and key risks associated with the each individual structured product. Any payments on a structured product are subject to the credit risk of the issuer and/or guarantor. Investors may lose their entire investment, i.e., incur an unlimited loss. The risks listed above are not complete. For a more comprehensive list of the risks involved with this particular product, please speak to your J.P. Morgan team.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Structured products are complex debt obligations of a corporate issuer the return of which is linked to the performance of an underlying asset. They are significantly riskier than conventional debt instruments and may not be suitable for all investors.
  • Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise. 

Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.  

Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested. 

Investors should understand the potential tax liabilities surrounding a municipal bond purchase. Certain municipal bonds are federally taxed if the holder is subject to alternative minimum tax. Capital gains, if any, are federally taxable. The investor should note that the income from tax-free municipal bond funds may be subject to state and local taxation and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).

This material is for information purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). The views and strategies described in the material may not be suitable for all investors and are subject to investment risks. Please read all Important Information.

  • The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS. Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

NON-RELIANCE. Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

LEGAL ENTITY, BRAND & REGULATORY INFORMATION

In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

86963023

Outlook

Outlook 2025: Building on Strength | Key Takeaways

Nov 18, 2024

Easing global monetary policy and increasing capital investment have the potential to drive growth in 2025. Read more here.

Read more
Cozy dressing room. Floor hanger with women's seasonal autumn winter clothes. Coats, pullovers, jackets, shirts, shoes - comfortable casual women's clothing

Outlook

October 2024 CPI report: Inflation met expectations, supporting the Fed’s easing path

Nov 14, 2024

The October 2024 CPI report met economists' expectations, supporting the Fed's easing path despite a slight year-over-year increase from 2.4% to 2.6%.

Read more
"Statue of Alexander Hamilton, one of the Founding Fathers of the USA and the first Secretary of the Treasury; in Washington DC"

Outlook

Eye on the Market: Kamilton: the 2024 election and who tells your story

Nov 07, 2024

In this edition of Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, looks at the Trump victory, market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation and more.

Read more
There's a busy day ahead

Outlook

October 2024 jobs report: Only 12,000 jobs added, tempered by disruptions

Nov 04, 2024

U.S. job growth grew by the slowest pace since 2020. Our strategists believe this softer report will keep the Fed on its programmatic rate-cutting cycle.

Read more

Outlook

Biopharma and medtech venture investments continue to trend upward in Q3

Oct 29, 2024

Our Biopharma and Medtech Licensing and Venture Reports explore upfront cash, mergers, acquisitions and other trends seen in the third quarter of 2024.

Read more

Outlook

Eye on the Market: The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

Oct 17, 2024

In this edition of Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, explains what China’s equity rebounds might mean for participants’ returns.

Read more
Refueling At Gas Station

Outlook

September 2024 CPI report: Inflation fell to 2.4%, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target

Oct 11, 2024

The uptick in September’s core CPI reminds us that inflation pressure hasn’t fully dissipated, which should keep the Fed on a gradual pace of rate cuts going forward.

Read more

Outlook

September 2024 jobs report: 254,000 jobs added, defying expectations

Oct 07, 2024

U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated sharply beyond economists’ expectations, solidifying our strategists’ view that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

Read more

Check the background of our firm and investment professionals on FINRA's BrokerCheck

To learn more about J. P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products.

This website is for informational purposes only, and not an offer, recommendation or solicitation of any product, strategy service or transaction. Any views, strategies or products discussed on this site may not be appropriate or suitable for all individuals and are subject to risks. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, legal, tax and other professional advisors that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation. 

This website provides information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"). When JPMS acts as a broker-dealer, a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client will be different in some important ways than a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client when we are acting as an investment advisor. A client should carefully read the agreements and disclosures received (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable) in connection with our provision of services for important information about the capacity in which we will be acting.

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Please read additional Important Information in conjunction with these pages.