Explore our services
  • Wealth Planning
    Receive a multigenerational wealth plan with personalized strategies and guidance.
  • Investing
    Experience a holistic approach to investing, centered on your goals and priorities.
  • Lending
    Unlock liquidity with a variety of customized lending products, strategies and solutions.
  • Banking
    Access a variety of banking products and services tailored to your needs.
  • Family wealth platform
    Explore our platform of specialized services designed for ultra-high-net-worth clients.

Learn about us

Discover our approach, digital tools and community initiatives 

Key takeaways

  • During its June meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) unanimously voted to hold policy rates steady for the seventh consecutive time, leaving the Fed Funds Target Rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%.
  • The much-anticipated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) broadly met expectations with a higher inflation forecast for 2024 and less easing this year; The median FOMC member called for one 25 basis point cut by the end of this year and four 25 basis point cuts in 2025.
  • Within the Fed’s economic projections, the most significant update was the expectation that core inflation will move to 2.8% for year-end from 2.6%. This increase is likely due to strong first quarter inflation.
  • Chair Powell underscored that the Fed’s decision on the direction of rates continues to be “meeting by meeting” with the “data leading the way” but noted ‘modest further’ inflation progress.

Contributors

Cristina Dwyer

Analyst, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

 

The Federal Reserve announced at its June 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that it would maintain the overnight federal funds rate at the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision marks the seventh consecutive meeting at which policymakers have opted to hold rates steady and keeps the federal funds rate at the highest target range in 23 years.1

The FOMC statement was largely unchanged. As expected, the Fed reiterated its commitment to its dual goals of lowering inflation to its 2% target and achieving maximum employment. While inflation has slowed recently and the jobs market has become more balanced this year, the uncertain economic outlook keeps the Fed “highlight attentive to inflation risks.”2

Powell acknowledged the committee has seen “modest further” inflation progress,3 a notable shift from his prior statement indicating there was a “lack of further progress.”

The FOMC statement reiterated the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace that is too strong to achieve its dual mandate hence the need for interest rates to be held higher for a bit longer. May’s hotter-than-expected labor market data showed parts of the economy are more resilient than most thought, while May’s inflation data was a step in the right direction.4

A softer run-off pace of security holdings continues

The Fed announced it will continue to maintain the slower rate at which it’s reducing the size of its balance sheet (announced in the May FOMC meeting).5 This marks another step towards a more accommodative monetary policy.

Summary of Economic Projections

The much-anticipated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) broadly met expectations with a higher inflation forecast for 2024 and less easing this year.6 In response to this adjustment, Powell commented it “is probably going to take longer to get the confidence that we need to loosen policy” during his press conference.7

A significant data point in the dot plot shows a year-end median Federal funds forecast of 5.1%, which implies that there will be just one 25 basis points (bps) cut by the end of this year and four 25 bps cuts in 2025.8 This is a reduction from the three cuts forecast at the March meeting.

Economic and monetary policy outlook remain uncertain

There’s no doubt over the past two months that economic variables are trending in the right direction for the Fed to eventually begin easing, but the Fed remains cautious about cutting rates too early.

Chair Powell underscored that the Fed’s decision on the direction of rates continues to be made on a meeting by meeting basis with the data leading the way. This measured approach allows the committee to “carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks."9 Additional variables that the Fed will assess include financial and international developments.

The Fed is able to extend this wait-and-see-posture as they continue to enjoy the luxury of a relatively strong labor market. The labor market has helped to keep the consumer resilient despite diminished purchasing power from higher rates. And in the press conference, Powell emphasized that “restoring price stability is essential to achieving maximum employment."10

Our view remains unchanged. We expect the Fed to start cutting rates by year end as inflation continues to moderate. This should allow the Fed to be patient, keeping rates higher for longer and not delivering rate cuts too soon.

Market reaction

U.S. equities were mostly higher in the afternoon following the Fed’s announcement on June 12, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9% that day. Simultaneously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.1% and the Nasdaq increased by 1.5%.

Investor sentiment was slightly boosted after the FOMC meeting as it offered little surprise. Market observers and participants largely anticipated that the central  bank would keep rates at current levels given recent resilient economic data and sticky inflation data.

References

1.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement.” (June 12, 2024)

2.

Ibid. 

3.

Ibid.

4.

Ibid.

5.

Ibid.

6.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Summary of Economic Projections” (June 12, 2024).

7.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement” (June 2024).

8.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Summary of Economic Projections” (June 12, 2024).

9.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement” (June 2024).

10.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement” (June 2024).

Connect with a Wealth Advisor

Our Wealth Advisors begin by getting to know you personally. To get started, tell us about your needs and we’ll reach out to you.

Connect now

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is for informational purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at accessibility.support@jpmorgan.com for assistance. Please read all Important Information.


GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS. Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan representative.

NON-RELIANCE. Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

Legal Entity and Regulatory Information.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

This document may provide information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”). The agreements entered into with JPMS, and corresponding disclosures provided with respect to the different products and services provided by JPMS (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable), contain important information about the capacity in which we will be acting. You should read them all carefully. We encourage clients to speak to their JPMS representative regarding the nature of the products and services and to ask any questions they may have about the difference between brokerage and investment advisory services, including the obligation to disclose conflicts of interests and to act in the best interests of our clients.

J.P. Morgan may hold a position for itself or our other clients which may not be consistent with the information, opinions, estimates, investment strategies or views expressed in this document.  JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as an underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer.

86963023

Outlook

Outlook 2025: Building on Strength | Key Takeaways

Nov 18, 2024

Easing global monetary policy and increasing capital investment have the potential to drive growth in 2025. Read more here.

Read more
Cozy dressing room. Floor hanger with women's seasonal autumn winter clothes. Coats, pullovers, jackets, shirts, shoes - comfortable casual women's clothing

Outlook

October 2024 CPI report: Inflation met expectations, supporting the Fed’s easing path

Nov 14, 2024

The October 2024 CPI report met economists' expectations, supporting the Fed's easing path despite a slight year-over-year increase from 2.4% to 2.6%.

Read more
"Statue of Alexander Hamilton, one of the Founding Fathers of the USA and the first Secretary of the Treasury; in Washington DC"

Outlook

Eye on the Market: Kamilton: the 2024 election and who tells your story

Nov 07, 2024

In this edition of Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, looks at the Trump victory, market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation and more.

Read more
There's a busy day ahead

Outlook

October 2024 jobs report: Only 12,000 jobs added, tempered by disruptions

Nov 04, 2024

U.S. job growth grew by the slowest pace since 2020. Our strategists believe this softer report will keep the Fed on its programmatic rate-cutting cycle.

Read more

Outlook

Biopharma and medtech venture investments continue to trend upward in Q3

Oct 29, 2024

Our Biopharma and Medtech Licensing and Venture Reports explore upfront cash, mergers, acquisitions and other trends seen in the third quarter of 2024.

Read more

Outlook

Eye on the Market: The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

Oct 17, 2024

In this edition of Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, explains what China’s equity rebounds might mean for participants’ returns.

Read more
Refueling At Gas Station

Outlook

September 2024 CPI report: Inflation fell to 2.4%, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target

Oct 11, 2024

The uptick in September’s core CPI reminds us that inflation pressure hasn’t fully dissipated, which should keep the Fed on a gradual pace of rate cuts going forward.

Read more

Outlook

September 2024 jobs report: 254,000 jobs added, defying expectations

Oct 07, 2024

U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated sharply beyond economists’ expectations, solidifying our strategists’ view that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

Read more

Check the background of our firm and investment professionals on FINRA's BrokerCheck

To learn more about J. P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products.

This website is for informational purposes only, and not an offer, recommendation or solicitation of any product, strategy service or transaction. Any views, strategies or products discussed on this site may not be appropriate or suitable for all individuals and are subject to risks. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, legal, tax and other professional advisors that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation. 

This website provides information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"). When JPMS acts as a broker-dealer, a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client will be different in some important ways than a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client when we are acting as an investment advisor. A client should carefully read the agreements and disclosures received (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable) in connection with our provision of services for important information about the capacity in which we will be acting.

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Please read additional Important Information in conjunction with these pages.