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Alan Wynne

Global Investment Strategist

Market Update

Rotation woes. Investors have spurned some of their favorite trades in favor of laggards for another week. The S&P 500 fell almost -2%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped -3.5%, and the “Magnificent 7” fell over -4.5%.

On the other hand, U.S. small caps popped another +2%, biotech spiked by over +5%, and the yen finally gained against the U.S. dollar.

Nvidia is now in its own bear market (down over -20% from its all-time high), but regional banks are finally higher than where they were when the U.S. mini banking crisis hit in March 2023.

Fixed income markets are feeling their own shift. Two-year yields have dropped by -8 basis points while the 10-year yield was flat. This kind of yield curve steepening (short-term yields moving down faster than long-term yields) is typical around the start of rate cutting cycles.

Indeed, yesterday’s first look at 2Q gross domestic product (GDP) showed the U.S. economy grew at a +2.8% annualized rate (faster than the 2% Street expectations). Growth is holding up, and inflation is no longer threatening. That should allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease policy rates. Futures markets suggest a 100% chance of a September rate cut. That is as strong a signal as any that it is time to step out of excess cash.

Now, we would forgive you for not noticing the moves in markets. The U.S. election is already taking up most of the airtime after all. In this week’s spotlight, we examine the extent to which the moves we are seeing in markets are being driven by changing perceptions of the U.S. election outcome.

The “Trump trade”

Since 1950, there have been 18 presidential elections and 10 transitions in the White House between Democrats and Republicans. Over those 74 years, U.S. GDP growth has averaged a 3.2% annual pace, and the S&P 500 has compounded at 9.4% per year. 

Despite the long-term trends, elections can introduce short-term volatility. Most of the focus this time has revolved around what a Trump/Vance victory might mean for markets given that the 2016 election caused notable moves across asset classes, and that most investors currently perceive Trump to be the favorite to win the White House.

What is the Trump trade? The Trump trade is a view that less regulation, lower taxes, less immigration and higher tariffs could benefit certain sectors and industries, and have important implications for inflation and bond yields. 

What happened in 2016? An important piece of context for the 2016 election is that President Donald Trump’s victory was a surprise. It wouldn’t be this time. In 2016, investors quickly shook off initial fears that a protectionist agenda would hurt stocks, and instead embraced the prospect for corporate tax cuts and a focus on pro-growth policies like infrastructure investment.

The first “Trump trade” was most prominent in the month following the election. Before the 2016 election, the market was focused on sluggish growth, low inflation and low interest rates (aka “secular stagnation”). Trump’s policies were viewed as stimulative to nominal growth, and policymakers actually welcomed upward pressure on below-target inflation.

The first Trump trade was characterized by small caps (which outperformed large-cap equities by nearly 8%), the energy sector (which outperformed the broader index by over 10%), the 10-year Treasury bond (yields rose by almost 100 basis points) and the 2- and 10-year yield curves (which steepened by 17 basis points).

This chart shows yields of 10-year US treasury bonds from July 2015 to June 2017.

How are markets responding to the prospect of Trump 2.0? According to Real Clear Politics, betting markets gave Trump a 47% chance to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election on May 31. That rose nearly 19 percentage points to a peak of 66% on July 15. Since President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race, Trump’s odds have fallen about 10 points to 56%. We look at the rise and fall of Trump's winning odds over those periods and how the Trump 1.0 trades fared this time around.

This chart shows the betting odds for a Trump victory in the 2024 Presidential election from January 2024 to the present.
  • Small caps: Small-cap stocks rose by 4.6% as Trump’s odds were improving, mirroring the “1.0” trade. However, over the same period, large caps returned 6.7%. Interestingly, small caps have started to outperform large caps despite the decline in Trump’s odds. This suggests that there is more to small-cap outperformance than just the election. Interest rates and valuations are more likely the drivers of small-cap returns. As our Asset & Wealth Management Chairman of Investment Strategy Michael Cembalest noted in his latest piece, more than 40% of the small-cap index is unprofitable. That makes them reliant on debt capital markets for financing. Therefore, the prospect of lower interest rates has a large impact on small caps. Small caps have benefitted from the view that inflation has finally turned the corner and that the Fed will start cutting rates in September.
  • Energy: The energy sector rallied in 2016 based on optimism around less onerous regulations and more independent U.S. energy production. Eight years later, the U.S. is now the world’s dominant oil producer. While less regulation could bring even more production, an oil glut could put downward pressure on prices and negatively impact energy company earnings. This time around, the energy sector declined while Trump’s odds were increasing.
This chart shows the average daily production of Crude oil of Russia, Saudia Arabia, and the United States from 2016 to 2023.
  • Bond yields: This time, bond yields across the curve have declined since Trump’s odds have increased, but the yield curve has steepened. Said differently, shorter term interest rates are moving lower, faster than longer term interest rates. To us, that suggests that central bank policy expectations are the primary driver of bond yields, and not the election. This is perhaps the biggest difference between 2016 and today. Then, the central bank was desperate for any signs of inflation that would allow them to raise rates above nearly 0%. Today, the central bank is desperate for confirmation that inflation is low enough to allow them to lower rates from 20-year highs. The key risk for bond markets is that protectionist economic policy like increased tariffs and less immigration will reduce growth and increase inflation at the same time that the extension of tax cuts will increase the deficit. The good news right now is that it seems like bond yields are taking their cues from the growth, inflation and central bank policy outlook.

Overall the Trump Trade 2.0 seems relatively inconclusive. Instead, it seems like markets are reacting more to the increasing likelihood that the Fed will be lowering interest rates with a backdrop of relatively decent underlying economic growth. However, certain sectors and industries may be more sensitive to changing election perceptions. Regional banks, for example, have reacted positively to an increase in Trump’s odds. Meanwhile, clean energy and Chinese stocks have been negatively impacted. The bottom line for investors is that we believe the growth, inflation and policy backdrop will be the primary drivers of market moves, but the election will matter underneath the surface.

What does history have to say about election years?

Election years tend to bring similar levels of equity market volatility until October, when there is a noticeable uptick in the Volatility Index (VIX). But, since 1984 there has only been one election year where the market was lower 12 months after the election: that was in 2000 amid the tech bubble. Notably, implied equity market volatility falls relatively quickly after the new composition of government is confirmed and on average equities are higher 12 months after the election.

This chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 in the 18 months before and 12 months after US Presidential elections from 1984 to 2020.

As always, reach out to your J.P. Morgan advisor, who is here to help.

The market update data is as of 07/25/24 and the analysis for the spotlight section is as of 07/24/24 and are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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DISCLOSURES

The Chicago Board Option Exchange(CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 Index.

The Solactive United States 2000 Index intends to track the performance of the largest 1001 to 3000 companies from the United States stock market. Constituents are selected based on company market capitalization and weighted by free float market capitalization.

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of small-capitalization U.S. equities.

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

Investing in equities involves risk. The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.

Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only.

They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations.

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Index definitions:

The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight – or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.

The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).

The S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit, call, liquidity and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.

The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases. 

The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

The Russell 2000 Index measures small company stock market performance. The index does not include fees or expenses.

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