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Alan Wynne

Global Investment Strategist

Halftime report

Markets got the start to 2024 that we were looking for. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up over +15% and +18.5% (in price terms) respectively. Stocks performed well straight from the jump. The S&P 500 hit its first all-time high in two years in January. Since then, we’ve hit 31 more.

It was the fifth best first half for the S&P 500 in the last 25 years (only 2013, 2019, 2021 and 2023 gained more). Notably, just four stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon) have contributed more than half of the gain. Strong first halves of the year tend to beget strong second halves – in the 22 other instances since 1950 that the S&P 500 has been up at least 10% or more in the first half, it’s rallied further in the second half 18 of those times, with the full year up on average above +25%.1

The stock market has also been helped by the inflation outlook. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is running at a 2.6% pace (its slowest since 2021) and we expect further cooling towards the 2% target. In the second half of the year, we expect the Federal Reserve to join other central banks in the global easing cycle. Of the 37 Central Banks we track, 21 are cutting interest rates. That likely means this is as good as it gets for cash rates.

Heading into the holiday weekend, we offer a look at the events that have dominated the headlines so far this year and how they have impacted markets and the economy. Happy Fourth!

These two line graphs show the MSCI world index in 2024 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury in 2024.

Halftime report

 

MSCI World index 2024 price return, percentage

 

This chart shows the percent change in the MSCI World index over the first six months of 2024. The US SEC approves eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs in a landmark decision on Jan 10, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned -0.2% year-to-date. US Labor Department reports the highest annual rise in auto insurance premiums in nearly half a century in 2023 on Jan 11, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned -0.4% year-to-date. S&P500 hits first all-time high in over two years on Jan 19, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 0.2% year-to-date. Japan is the fifth nation to land a spacecraft on the Moon with its SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating Moon) using "pinpoint landing" technology on Jan 20, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 0.2% year-to-date. The 2023 Q4 GDP print beats all expectations at 3.3% annualized growth on Jan 25, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 1.4% year-to-date. Chinese property giant Evergrande (holding over $300B in debt) ordered to liquidate by Hong Kong court on Jan 29, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 2.1% year-to-date. King Charles III diagnosed with cancer on Feb 6, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 2.4% year-to-date. Kansas City Chiefs win their second consecutive Superbowl on Feb 11, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 3.5% year-to-date. The United Kingdom enters a technical recession on Feb 15, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 3.8% year-to-date. Capital One announces a deal to acquire Discover Financial for $35.5 billion on Feb 19, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 3.7% year-to-date. Nvidia adds nearly $280B to its market value, the most in a day for a company ever on Feb 22, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 5.0% year-to-date. The Nikkei average, Japan's equity benchmark, reaches its highest-ever level for the first time since 1989 on Feb 22, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 5.0% year-to-date. Second anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 5.1% year-to-date. Funeral for Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny held in Moscow on Mar 1, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 6.0% year-to-date. China holds their 14th National People's Congress on Mar 5, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 5.2% year-to-date. Super Tuesday: Biden and Trump cement their status as presumptive nominees on Mar 5, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 5.2% year-to-date. 96th Academy Awards, Oppenheimer wins seven Oscars, including Best Picture on Mar 10, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 6.5% year-to-date. Chinese-based ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, forced to sell the social media platform or face a ban by the US House of Representatives on Mar 13, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 7.0% year-to-date. Japan raises interest rates for the first time in 17 years on Mar 18, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 6.6% year-to-date. The Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates - the first developed market central bank to do so this cycle on Mar 21, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 8.1% year-to-date. Taylor Swift listed by Forbes as a billionaire for the first time on Apr 2, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 7.2% year-to-date. General Electric finalizes split into 3 independent companies: GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, and GE HealthCare on Apr 2, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 7.2% year-to-date. A dairy farm worker is infected with bird flu (H5N1) in Texas, becoming the second person ever to contract the virus in the US on Apr 4, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 6.7% year-to-date. Brent reaches a peak of $91 as fallout from World Central Kitchen deaths raise Middle East tensions on Apr 5, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 7.2% year-to-date. Total solar eclipse crosses North America on Apr 8, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 7.4% year-to-date. Elon Musk announces that more than 10% of Tesla's global workforce will be laid off on Apr 15, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 4.7% year-to-date. Students at Columbia University set up an encampment - starting a wave of protest across college campuses on Apr 17, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 3.6% year-to-date. US House passes a bipartisan $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on Apr 20, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 2.8% year-to-date. The US FTC votes to ban nearly all employment agreements that prevent workers from joining competing businesses on Apr 23, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 4.9% year-to-date. April CPI report shows US inflation cooled for the first time this year on May 15, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 9.3% year-to-date. Dow Jones Industrial Average surpasses 40,000 points for the first time on May 16, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 9.2% year-to-date. Manchester City wins their fourth consecutive Premier League title on May 19, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 9.3% year-to-date. President and Foreign minister of Iran killed in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 9.3% year-to-date. Copper price hits record above $11,000 as fears of shortage grow on May 20, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 9.5% year-to-date. Donald J. Trump convicted of 34 felony counts on May 30, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 7.8% year-to-date. May 2024 marks the 12th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures on May 31, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 8.5% year-to-date. Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum as its first woman president on Jun 2, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 8.5% year-to-date. Results announced in the 2024 Indian general election - BJP unexpectedly loses outright majority on Jun 4, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 8.8% year-to-date. Nvidia passes Microsoft as most valuable public company on Jun 18, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 10.8% year-to-date. The European Commission levels an antitrust fine against Microsoft, charging it with unfairly advantaging its Microsoft Teams app on Jun 25, 2024. On that day, the MSCI world index returned 10.7% year-to-date.

 

2024 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, percentage

 

This chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield over the first six months of 2024. The US SEC approves eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs in a landmark decision on Jan 10, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.03%. US Labor Department reports the highest annual rise in auto insurance premiums in nearly half a century in 2023 on Jan 11, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97%. S&P500 hits first all-time high in over two years on Jan 19, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.12%. Japan is the fifth nation to land a spacecraft on the Moon with its SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating Moon) using "pinpoint landing" technology on Jan 20, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.12%. The 2023 Q4 GDP print beats all expectations at 3.3% annualized growth on Jan 25, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.12%. Chinese property giant Evergrande (holding over $300B in debt) ordered to liquidate by Hong Kong court on Jan 29, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.07%. King Charles III diagnosed with cancer on Feb 6, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.10%. Kansas City Chiefs win their second consecutive Superbowl on Feb 11, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.18%. The United Kingdom enters a technical recession on Feb 15, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.23%. Capital One announces a deal to acquire Discover Financial for $35.5 billion on Feb 19, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.28%. Nvidia adds nearly $280B to its market value, the most in a day for a company ever on Feb 22, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.32%. The Nikkei average, Japan's equity benchmark, reaches its highest-ever level for the first time since 1989 on Feb 22, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.32%. Second anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.25%. Funeral for Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny held in Moscow on Mar 1, 2024. On that day the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.18%. China holds their 14th National People's Congress on Mar 5, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.15%. Super Tuesday: Biden and Trump cement their status as presumptive nominees on Mar 5, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.15%.96th Academy Awards, Oppenheimer wins seven Oscars, including Best Picture on Mar 10, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.07%. Chinese-based ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, forced to sell the social media platform or face a ban by the US House of Representatives on Mar 13, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.19%. Japan raises interest rates for the first time in 17 years on Mar 18, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.32%. The Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates - the first developed market central bank to do so this cycle on Mar 21, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.27%. Taylor Swift listed by Forbes as a billionaire for the first time on Apr 2, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%. General Electric finalizes split into 3 independent companies: GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, and GE HealthCare on Apr 2, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%. A dairy farm worker is infected with bird flu (H5N1) in Texas, becoming the second person ever to contract the virus in the US on Apr 4, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.31%. Brent reaches a peak of $91 as fallout from World Central Kitchen deaths raise Middle East tensions on Apr 5, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.40%. Total solar eclipse crosses North America on Apr 8, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.42%. Elon Musk announces that more than 10% of Tesla's global workforce will be laid off on Apr 15, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.60%. Students at Columbia University set up an encampment - starting a wave of protest across college campuses on Apr 17, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.59%. US House passes a bipartisan $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on Apr 20, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.62%. The US FTC votes to ban nearly all employment agreements that prevent workers from joining competing businesses on Apr 23, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.60%. April CPI report shows US inflation cooled for the first time this year on May 15, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.34%. Dow Jones Industrial Average surpasses 40,000 points for the first time on May 16, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38%. Manchester City wins their fourth consecutive Premier League title on May 19, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.42%. President and Foreign minister of Iran killed in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.42%. Copper price hits record above $11,000 as fears of shortage grow on May 20, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.44%. Donald J. Trump convicted of 34 felony counts on May 30, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.55%. May 2024 marks the 12th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures on May 31, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.50%. Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum as its first woman president on Jun 2, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.50%. Results announced in the 2024 Indian general election - BJP unexpectedly loses outright majority on Jun 4, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.33%. Nvidia passes Microsoft as most valuable public company on Jun 18, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.22%. The European Commission levels an antitrust fine against Microsoft, charging it with unfairly advantaging its Microsoft Teams app on Jun 25, 2024. On that day, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.25%.

Sources: Bloomberg L.P. Data as of June 28, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest in an index.

These two line graphs show the MSCI world index in 2024 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury in 2024.
This table shows 40 important events that took place during the first six months of 2024 in chronological order.

Events

 

Legend

 

This table lists 40 important events that took place during the first six months of 2024 in chronological order. The events are as follows:

  1. The US SEC approves eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs in a landmark decision
  2. US Labor Department reports the highest annual rise in auto insurance premiums in nearly half a century in 2023
  3. S&P500 hits first all-time high in over two years
  4. Japan is the fifth nation to land a spacecraft on the Moon with its SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating Moon) using "pinpoint landing" technology
  5. The 2023 Q4 GDP print beats all expectations at 3.3% annualized growth
  6. Chinese property giant Evergrande (holding over $300B in debt) ordered to liquidate by Hong Kong court
  7. King Charles III diagnosed with cancer
  8. Kansas City Chiefs win their second consecutive Superbowl
  9. The United Kingdom enters a technical recession
  10. Capital One announces a deal to acquire Discover Financial for $35.5 billion
  11. Nvidia adds nearly $280B to its market value, the most in a day for a company ever
  12. The Nikkei average, Japan's equity benchmark, reaches its highest-ever level for the first time since 1989
  13. Second anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine  
  14. Funeral for Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny held in Moscow
  15. China holds their 14th National People's Congress  
  16. Super Tuesday: Biden and Trump cement their status as presumptive nominees
  17. 96th Academy Awards, Oppenheimer wins seven Oscars, including Best Picture
  18. Chinese-based ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, forced to sell the social media platform or face a ban by the US House of Representatives
  19. Japan raises interest rates for the first time in 17 years
  20. The Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates - the first developed market central bank to do so this cycle
  21. Taylor Swift listed by Forbes as a billionaire for the first time
  22. General Electric finalizes split into 3 independent companies: GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, and GE HealthCare
  23. A dairy farm worker is infected with bird flu (H5N1) in Texas, becoming the second person ever to contract the virus in the US
  24. Brent reaches a peak of $91 as fallout from World Central Kitchen deaths raise Middle East tensions
  25. Total solar eclipse crosses North America
  26. Elon Musk announces that more than 10% of Tesla's global workforce will be laid off
  27. Students at Columbia University set up an encampment - starting a wave of protest across college campuses
  28. US House passes a bipartisan $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
  29. The US FTC votes to ban nearly all employment agreements that prevent workers from joining competing businesses
  30. April CPI report shows US inflation cooled for the first time this year
  31. Dow Jones Industrial Average surpasses 40,000 points for the first time
  32. Manchester City wins their fourth consecutive Premier League title
  33. President and Foreign minister of Iran killed in a helicopter crash
  34. Copper price hits record above $11,000 as fears of shortage grow
  35. Donald J. Trump convicted of 34 felony counts
  36. May 2024 marks the 12th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures
  37. Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum as its first woman president
  38. Results announced in the 2024 Indian general election - BJP unexpectedly loses outright majority
  39. Nvidia passes Microsoft as most valuable public company
  40. The European Commission levels an antitrust fine against Microsoft, charging it with unfairly advantaging its Microsoft Teams app
This table shows 40 important events that took place during the first six months of 2024 in chronological order.

All market and economic data as of 07/03/2024 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

References

1.

Past performance does not guarantee future results

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The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

Index definitions:

The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market.

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LEGAL ENTITY, BRAND & REGULATORY INFORMATION

In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

This document may provide information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”). The agreements entered into with JPMS, and corresponding disclosures provided with respect to the different products and services provided by JPMS (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable), contain important information about the capacity in which we will be acting. You should read them all carefully. We encourage clients to speak to their JPMS representative regarding the nature of the products and services and to ask any questions they may have about the difference between brokerage and investment advisory services, including the obligation to disclose conflicts of interests and to act in the best interests of our clients.

J.P. Morgan may hold a position for itself or our other clients which may not be consistent with the information, opinions, estimates, investment strategies or views expressed in this document. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as an underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer.

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To learn more about J. P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products.

This website is for informational purposes only, and not an offer, recommendation or solicitation of any product, strategy service or transaction. Any views, strategies or products discussed on this site may not be appropriate or suitable for all individuals and are subject to risks. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, legal, tax and other professional advisors that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation. 

This website provides information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"). When JPMS acts as a broker-dealer, a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client will be different in some important ways than a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client when we are acting as an investment advisor. A client should carefully read the agreements and disclosures received (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable) in connection with our provision of services for important information about the capacity in which we will be acting.

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Please read additional Important Information in conjunction with these pages.