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It's not just about inflation anymore. Central bankers are now tasked with balancing both the fight against rising prices and the need for overall financial stability.

Before last week’s bank sector turmoil, it seemed like the Fed might need to keep pressing on the economic brake—consensus expected the Fed to hike another full percentage point to a final rate of ~5.7% before the year was up. 

Heading into Wednesday’s Fed meeting, even in light of last week's uncomfortably strong inflation data (headline prices increased 0.4% m/m and core inflation accelerated 0.5% m/m), Fed hike expectations have come down significantly.

We think that's largely a symptom of the current banking stress, which is pushing the cost of credit higher and making lending standards tighter in its own right. In a way, prevailing market conditions may be doing the Fed's work for them. We think these dynamics ought to slow growth and inflation, and potentially accelerate the path to recession.

This considered, we’re likely now in the final stretch of the Fed’s rate hiking process. Regardless of this week’s decision, it’s possible that they consider hiking again in May and potentially June.

This chart shows the Fed funds futures implied policy rate on March 8, March 13, and March 15, from March 2023 until January 2024

This chart shows the Fed funds futures implied policy rate on March 8, March 13, and March 15, from March 2023 until January 2024. The first datapoint for all came in at 4.57%. Here:

March 8: rose to a peak of 5.69% by September 2023 and then declined to 5.43% by January 2024.

March 13: rose to a peak of 4.92% by May 2023 and then declined to 4.17% by January 2024.

March 15: rose to a peak of 4.75% by May 2023 and then declined to 3.70% by January 2024.

 

This chart shows the Fed funds futures implied policy rate on March 8, March 13, and March 15, from March 2023 until January 2024

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of March 15, 2023. Note: Current and today stand for March 15, 2023.

All market data from Bloomberg Finance L.P., 3/21/23

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All market and economic data as of March 22, 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

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J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

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