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Our Top Market Takeaways for October 15, 2021.

Markets in a minute: Inflation on my mind

Stocks just had their best day since March. It was starting to seem like investors had cabin fever, given it’s been 29 trading days since the S&P 500’s last new record close—the longest such streak since autumn of 2020. But Thursday’s +1.7% S&P 500 rally delivered gains of +1% or more for all 11 sectors, and brought the index within 4% of last month’s all-time high. The perk-up in performance is mostly thanks to strong Q3 earnings results from many of the season’s early reporters, and the positive momentum continued with further gains for the S&P 500 on Friday morning.

Before we dig into our thoughts on earnings, we would be remiss not to address the most notable data release of the week: September inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in close to what was expected: Headline CPI was +5.4% year-over-year, and Core CPI was +4.0% year-over-year. From August to September, core rose only 0.2%—more in-line with “normal” versus the eye-popping prints we saw over the summer.

This chart shows the Core CPI month-over-month change, from January 31, 2019, to September 30, 2021. The Core CPI came at 0.2% in January 2019, 0.1% in February 2019, 0.2% in March 2019, 0.3% in April 2019, 0.1% in May 2019, 0.3% in June 2019, 0.2% in July 2019, 0.2% in August 2019, 0.2% in September 2019, 0.2% in October 2019, 0.2% in November 2019, 0.1% in December 2019, 0.2% in January 2020, 0.2% in February 2020, -0.4% in April 2020, -0.1% in May 2020, 0.2% in June 2020, 0.5% in July 2020, 0.3% in August 2020, 0.2% in September 2020, 0.1% in October 2020, 0.2% in November 2020, 0.1% in February 2021, and 0.3% in March 2021. It picked up to 0.9% in April 2020, 0.7% in May 2021, and 0.9% in June 2021. Since then, it has fallen back down to 0.3% in July 2021, 0.1% in August 2021, and 0.2% in September 2021.

 

The notable thing about this month’s report is that it showed the drivers of inflation are starting to broaden out. Car prices (+1.3% month-over-month) are still being squeezed by the semiconductor shortage, while other reopening pressures in areas such as transportation services (-0.5%) and hotels (-0.6%) actually eased. But other, stickier areas such as owners’ equivalent rent (+0.4%) picked up in September by more than what we saw at any point in the last cycle.

That might be read as a sign that the tradeoff between “transitory” inflation pressures and more persistent ones is happening faster than expected, and parts of the market have reacted accordingly. The two-year Treasury yield, for example, headed into Friday at 0.36%, up +6 basis points (bps) versus a week ago, and +14 bps versus a month ago. Ten-year yields have dropped -10 bps to 1.51% since last Friday. The market-priced fed funds rate for the end of 2022 has crept higher, and is signaling at least one rate hike next year.

At this time, we’re not changing our base case assumption that the first hike won’t come until 2023. But we think this cycle will be marked by stronger growth and stronger inflation than the last, and the tail risk of the Federal Reserve hiking sooner is growing. Even so, our Equity Strategists think there’s still plenty of room for rates to rise before they would challenge our optimistic outlook for stocks. That outlook is based on our belief in the strength of earnings momentum, and the third-quarter earnings season that kicked off this week will offer a gut check on that.

Spotlight: Three themes to watch during the 3Q earnings season

It seems likely that the S&P 500 reached peak earnings growth at +89% year-over-year this cycle in the spring quarter (Q2). Nevertheless, we still expect above-average earnings growth and positive revisions as results roll out for Q3 in the coming weeks. In the run-up to the reports, 60% of U.S. companies have issued positive EPS guidance, which is well above the five-year average of 33%. Given that, we have a broadly positive view heading into the Q3 reporting season.

But with that positive stance comes an awareness of several headwinds that companies have had to navigate over the last few months. In particular, there are three key topics we want to hear more about:

1. Supply

Supply shortages have significantly impacted industries globally, and so far this has led to a 1% drop in aggregated Q3 estimates for the S&P 500. Shortages range from labor to commodities, to semiconductors, so various inputs are not as readily available right now as they used to be. This is weighing on businesses that are unable to produce sufficient amounts of goods to meet demand.

We have already heard from a few companies about the negative impact on their businesses. Most notably, reports suggest that Apple will produce 10 million fewer iPhones this year because Broadcom and Texas Instruments cannot supply enough components. The market, though, seems to have been anticipating these kinds of issues, so they’re likely baked into current expectations.

Another example: The truck producer Paccar announced that semiconductor chip shortages reduced deliveries of trucks over the last months. As such, it will be crucial for companies to reassure investors that they are able to overcome the supply chain disruptions during their earnings calls this quarter—companies such as Levi Strauss handled this deftly, reporting strong results earlier this month that beat expectations thanks to the firm’s diversified supply chain across countries.

2. Demand

While the supply side has come under pressure amid shortages and other weather- and shipping-related disruptions, the demand backdrop has remained very supportive. Some estimates suggest that strong demand has accounted for two-thirds of the rise in global manufacturing supplier delays, which is ultimately positive for the growth of companies’ order books.

For example, ASM International, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is seeing very strong Q3 order intake. What this tells us is that while semis are in scarce supply at the moment, semiconductor manufacturers are investing in new capacity, ordering new equipment and opening new sites to meet the rising demand for chips in the near future. This lends to the argument that supply constraints should be temporary. 

This chart shows how much supplier delivery times have deviated (in points of global Manufacturing PMI) from their long-term average, breaking out contributions from demand and supply, from December 2007 to August 2021.  The first data point comes in at 1.9 for total deviation, and sharply inclined to 3.8 by February 2008. From here, it briefly declined to 1.7, before rising to 2.6 and then sharply declining to a trough of -7.6 by March 2009. At that point, demand contribution was -8.9, while supply contribution was falling from +2.6 to +1.3. Total delivery time deviation then rose back to 4.4 by April 2010, with demand contributing 3.8 and supply 0.6. There was a brief decline in total deviation to 1.9 in October 2010 before we saw it rise back to 5.5 by April 2011, with demand contributing 3.7 and supply 1.7. Then there was a sharp decline to a trough of -3.7 by June 2012, with -2.6 coming from demand’s contribution and -1.1 coming from supply. From there, total deviation increased to -0.7 by January 2013 before dropping once again to -3.2 by May 2013, with demand contribution -2.5 and supply contribution -0.7.  In February 2014, the deviation reached 0.6 before dropping to -2.0 by April 2014, with demand’s contribution only -0.5 and supply’s -1.5. Supply continued to weigh more on the negative deviation from April 2014 until February 2016, at which point the total of -2.8 came from a -2.0 contribution from demand and -0.8 contribution from supply. Then total deviation rose a bit, but stayed in negative territory before dropping again to -1.8 by October 2016 (with -0.2 from demand and -1.6 from supply).  From there, delivery time’s deviation from the average gradually rose back to positive and landed at 3.7 in May 2018, as demand contribution reached to 2.9 and supply contribution 0.8. Then there was a relatively sharp decline in the total to a trough of -3.2 by July 2019 (with-2.6 from demand contribution and -0.6 from supply). Then total deviation remain

 

We’re getting upbeat signals outside of the semiconductor segment, too, because consumers remain in good shape and continue to spend the savings they accumulated during the pandemic. Nike, for example, reported a spike in demand in North America, amplified by the back-to-school season and the return to athletics. Earlier this week, the luxury group LVMH reported better-than-expected organic sales growth.

3. Inflation

Constrained supply that meets strong demand ultimately translates into rising prices, sparking the pick-up in inflation over the last few months. On top of that, we have seen wages increase over the last year as well.

Companies are feeling this and are responding to it. We recently heard from Pepsi’s CFO that the company will be raising prices to offset higher commodity, transport and supply chain costs. This is key for earnings season: Investors want to see companies pass on those higher costs to consumers, but they can only do so if they have sufficient pricing power. Ultimately, higher wages and input prices could put pressure on companies’ profit margins in the coming quarters, but we believe businesses are in a position where they can defend their margins by increasing their prices. Recent business survey data confirms this view. As a result, we estimate that margins will remain flattish.

This chart shows the gap between plans to raise prices and plans to raise wages, from January 1986 to September 2021. A reading above 0 indicates more companies reporting intentions to raise prices than those planning to raise wages, and vice versa.  The indicator was 0 starting in January 1986. Here it rapidly declined to -4, and then it inclined to 8 by July 1988. After briefly falling in the fall of 1988, it then rose to 7 by November 1989. It then sharply declined to -8 by December 1989 before it inclined to 5 in March 1990. From there, it fell back to 0 before surging to a relative peak of 12 by September 1990. Then there was another decline to -2 by March 1991, and an increase to 5 by September 1991. Then it declined to 0 before surging to 11 by August 1993. We then saw a sharp decline to -3 in November 1995, and an incline to 5 by March 1997. Then there was another decline over time to a trough of -7 in April 1999 before rising back to 7 by November 2000.  The indicator then declined -4 before increasing and settling at -1 by November 2001, and then rose to a relative peak of 12 by February 2003. We saw another decline to 1 in April 2003 before a surge to 16 by June 2004. Then there was a drop to 8 by July 2005 before another incline to 19 by November 2005. Here it declined to 10 by March 2006, and then rose again to 15 by May 2006. Then there was another drop to 3 before surging to an all-time high of 26 by July 2008.  The Global Financial Crisis recession prompted a sharp decline to -3 by February 2009 before a gradual increase to 16 by May 2011. From here, there was a gradual decline to a relative trough of -2 by September 2015 before it started rising again, reaching 7 by July 2017. The indicator remained rangebound between -1 and 7 until it broke out to 8 by February 2019.  The indicator declined to its lowest point of -10 by April 2020 before surging to 21 by May 2021. The latest results from September 2021 showed the indicator at 16.

As for the investment implications?

Given the several headwinds that companies are facing at the moment, we believe stock selection into the quarter is key. We think the market will reward those companies with strong pricing power and the ability to reiterate/increase their full-year guidance. We think that makes for a fertile hunting ground for stock pickers, especially those actively managing portfolios of companies levered to the trends that will define this economic cycle.

All market and economic data as of October 2021 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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All market and economic data as of October 2021 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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